BRIDGETOWN, Barbados (CMC)—Caribbean governments, businesses, farmers and other stakeholders are being urged to prepare themselves for potentially severe climate extremes as a developing El Niño is expected to bring hotter and drier conditions across the region in 2026 and 2027.

El Niño is a climate pattern characterised by the warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, occurring every two to seven years.

It represents the “warm phase” of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, causing weakened easterly trade winds that allow warm water to shift eastward, disrupting global weather patterns and causing significant environmental impacts.

Climatologist at the Barbados-based Caribbean Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), Dr Cedric Van Meerbeeck, is warning that this El Niño event is likely to bring periods of reduced rainfall and increased humid heat, which can affect water availability and agriculture, and increase the likelihood of heat stress and dry conditions.

The CIMH said that without adequate planning, the socio-economic impacts from cascading and compounding hazards will be significant.

Historically, El Niño is linked to severe droughts—such as those in 2009–2010 and 2014– 2016—and also increases the risk of extreme heat, wildfires, and marine heatwaves that can trigger coral bleaching.

Similar combined impacts were also observed during the record heat years of 2010, 2023, and 2024. Areas already experiencing drought, particularly in the Eastern Caribbean, may see slower recovery of water resources during the upcoming wet season, which could begin as early as May 2026.

Although El Niño is typically associated with quieter Atlantic hurricane seasons, Dr Van Meerbeeck stresses that risk remains, as a single hurricane or intense rainfall event can cause significant damage, as demonstrated by Hurricane Andrew in The Bahamas in 1992 and Tropical Storm Erika in Dominica in 2015.

The co-director of the University of the West Indies Climate Studies Group, Mona (UWI CSGM), Professor Michael Taylor, said, “What we are seeing in the forecasts is the emergence of a potential multi-hazard regime—where heat, drought, and marine impacts can occur together and reinforce each other.

“Our research has long pointed to these compound extremes as a serious threat to life and livelihoods in the Caribbean. With advance warning of a looming multi-hazard threat, preparedness is imperative—requiring coordinated and integrated action across and within sectors and a strong regional approach,” Professor Taylor added.

Both CIMH and GSMG said that this emerging pattern reflects a shift toward more complex, interconnected climate risks, affecting key sectors such as agriculture, water resources management, energy, and health.

They say reduced rainfall combined with elevated temperatures can lead to agricultural losses, affecting food security and rural livelihoods. Health risks may also increase, particularly in relation to water quality, vector-borne diseases, and heat-related illnesses. Water and energy systems may come under strain, as demand for cooling increases, especially in countries that rely on hydroelectric power or freshwater-cooled energy production.

The two experts say that wider economic impacts linked to El Niño may also be felt, particularly in tourism, fisheries, and maritime transport.

“Given the region’s reliance on imports, global disruptions associated with the El Niño can affect trade, logistics, and the procurement of goods and services. Governments are being urged to assess risks to supply chains, transportation networks, and key trade routes.

“For example, recent drought events have disrupted operations at the Panama Canal, a major transit point for goods entering the region and ports along the east coast of the USA. These disruptions can negatively affect regional food security and increase the cost of living.”

As El Niño forecasts typically become more reliable from May onward, Dr Van Meerbeeck is urging stakeholders to stay updated on the evolving El Niño and its potential implications, noting that regional experts will continue monitoring conditions and providing timely updates

He is encouraging decision-makers and the public to follow updates from the next Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) organised by the CIMH, scheduled for the week of May 24.

At the forum, regional climate experts and personnel from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services will engage with national, regional, and international stakeholders from climate-sensitive sectors to provide guidance ahead of the upcoming wet and hurricane season.

CIMH Principal, Dr David Farrell, emphasising the importance of early awareness and preparedness, highlights the role of timely, actionable climate information in supporting decision-making across the region

“Proactive measures are vital for mitigating the impacts of extreme weather events on climate-sensitive sectors, communities, and national economies,” Dr Farrell said, underscoring the CIMH’s commitment to enhancing regional resilience.

He notes that the Institute has strategically expanded its services to include a sharper focus on water, marine systems, earth observation, and climate, to support and advance all relevant early warning information services.

He said that in recent years, the CIMH has invested significant effort in examining how weather and climate-related hazards such as El Niño produce cascading sectoral impacts that lead to socio-economic consequences across the region. This work helps to risk-inform the region’s climate adaptation programmes, which are key to building the region’s resilience to climate change and increasing climate variability.

Dr Farrell adds that strengthening early warning systems and access to clear, actionable information remains key to supporting preparedness across the region, and thanks regional governments and development partners for their support of CIMH’s programmes aimed at improving early warning systems.