Forecasters say the new Atlantic hurricane season, starting June 1, could be less active than usual because of the El Nino phenomenon — a periodic weather pattern originating in the tropical Pacific.

That’s although Atlantic Ocean surface temperatures are higher than normal, which — outside of El Nino — would normally trigger greater storm activity in our part of the world.

Experts say the El Nino factor could lead to strong adverse winds undermining storms which would otherwise threaten the Caribbean and the wider Americas.

But, in nature, nothing is ever straightforward.

It appears that those very same factors potentially hindering development of hurricanes and tropical storms could also lead to devastating droughts, extreme heat waves, irreversible damage to coral reefs, and so forth.

Hence recent word from the Meteorological Service of Jamaica (Met Service) that is has activated its National Drought Management Committee. That threat of drought follows what the Met Office confirmed was higher than normal rainfall during the traditional dry season between January and March. And which, from this newspaper’s observation followed considerable rainfall over much of Jamaica between Hurricane Melissa in late October 2025 and year end.

The Met Office tells us that historically El Nino events “have been associated with reduced rainfall across parts of the Caribbean region and increased temperatures, creating conditions that can elevate the risk of drought and heat-related impacts”.

According to its principal director, Mr Evan Thompson, in more recent times the agency has “observed a reduction in rainfall activity alongside increasing temperatures…[and] our team continues to closely monitor the developing El Niño conditions.”

Of course, weather forecasting is notoriously unpredictable. If anything, global warming has apparently made it even more so.

We hope for the best, but it could well be that Jamaica and her neighbours experience prolonged drought as well as extreme wet weather and/or devastating hurricanes.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is reported as saying there is a 55 per cent chance of a below average season. But we know that a hurricane season doesn’t need to be very active for there to be absolute devastation. We need go back no further than Category 5 Melissa seven months ago. That was the only storm categorised as a hurricane to enter the Caribbean during the 2025 season. Other hurricanes stayed in the Atlantic, outside the Caribbean chain of islands.

Furthermore, following a pedestrian crawl through the central Caribbean, it picked up strength and made landfall in western Jamaica unusually late in the season, on October 28. At that point, Hurricane Melissa was the strongest-ever in this country’s recorded history, leaving dozens of deaths and an estimated US$12 billion in damage.

And, lest we forget, weather experts say that Hurricane Beryl, which brushed southern Jamaica in early July 2024, was the strongest Category 5 Atlantic storm so early in the season since record keeping began generations ago.

We can all hope and pray, but at bottom line Jamaicans and their neighbours must prepare for any disastrous eventuality in coming months.