Higher levels of employment coupled with increased capacity utilisation in the mining industry and the continued growth momentum of tourism are said to be the main drivers of the estimated 1.9 per cent economic expansion registered for the July-September quarter.

Producing strong outturns of 102 per cent the mining and quarry industry along with manufacturing, which increased by 3.2 per cent, led growth for the goods-producing industries which continues to be constrained by poor performances from the agriculture and construction sectors which decreased 9 per cent and 3.1 per cent, respectively.

The services industry which on the other hand saw an overall growth of 1.8 per cent, is said to have benefited from higher real value added across most of its industries especially hotels and restaurants, up 8 per cent during the quarter.

The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ), in providing its latest preliminary estimates during a quarterly briefing held on Tuesday, said that the performance reflects the continued rebound of the local economy which also grew 2.8 per cent for the first nine months of the year.

“All industries recorded growth in output with the exception of the agriculture forestry and fishing, construction and producers of government services industries. Growth for the nine month period was however led by mining and quarrying, up 123.2 per cent, hotels and restaurants, up 14.7 per cent; transport, storage and communication, up 5.4 per cent and other services up 5.3 per cent,” PIOJ Director General Dr Wayne Henry said in his briefing.

The PIOJ in its short-term outlook, shared its expectation for growth to remain largely positive predicated on the continued expansion of economic activities in most industries. This, as strong performance in the labour market, shown by record high employment levels and record low unemployment rate continues to drive greater domestic demand.

“For October-December 2023 it is projected that the economy will grow within the range of 1-2 per cent resulting in calendar year (Jan-Dec 2023) growth within the range of 2-3 per cent. For fiscal year 2023/24 the projection is for growth within the range of 1-2 per cent,” Henry noted, though citing downside risks which include supply chain disruptions due to the impact of geo-political conflicts, and adverse weather conditions among the areas of concern.

Following a battering from the recent flood rains which damaged parts of the island, further trampling growth for the agriculture sector, which has since January witnessed three consecutive quarters of decline, Henry said the hope is for there to be better responses to weather-related shocks and an expansion of productive capacity (including human capital) to these key industries to growth.

“With respect to the impact of weather-related shocks there are some ongoing initiatives, which when completed, are expected to have an effect in mitigating the impact of these shocks,” the director general indicated as he pointed to some of the measures which includes the refinement of a project prioritisation tool along with the development of the Jamaica Systemic Risk Assessment Tool (JSRAT) geared towards facilitating more targeted planning as it aids in the development and prioritisation of mitigation and adaptation efforts to minimise future impacts.

In light of the continued drag on the construction industry, he said it is also anticipated that current effects will weaken in the upcoming quarters as the impact of a ‘high base’ effect dissipates.

“As capital expenditure levels normalise, and new projects come on stream, the industry is expected to return to positive performance,” the PIOJ said in its quarterly review.

The PIOJ in collaborating with government said it continues to work with international development partners to find solutions to complex issues that have negatively impacted the country’s development over decades.

“It is anticipated that with the continued targeted focus on addressing these issues, the country will continue to feel the effects of a more industrious economy and society,” Henry stated.