Beware overconfidence
“I can feel it in my bones” are famous words of Sir Winston Churchill, acclaimed by many noted political pundits as the greatest British prime minister to date. “We’re going to win,” exclaimed a confident Churchill as he addressed an election rally. The atmosphere was electric, historians say.
Indeed, Churchill had much to be genuinely confident about. Britain was a critical member of the victorious Allied (Great Britain, the United States, and the Soviet Union) Powers, the coalition of countries that opposed the Axis Forces led by (Germany, Italy, and Japan) during World War II.
War hero Churchill was at the zenith of his popularity when he announced Thursday, July 5, 1945 for the holding of a general election. A large crowd cheered at the announcement.
But Churchill’s bones were wrong. In fact, he suffered a landslide defeat at the hands of a rather jaded Clement Attlee, who some Brits mockingly called Clam Attlee, because of his quiet public persona.
Pundits provide several reasons for Churchill’s pummelling at the polls. Primary among them is that Britons wanted a leader for peacetime. Churchill, it was felt, wanted to continue the war.
Additionally, pundits say Britons wanted social regeneration as a focal point in the rebuilding of their country.
There are lessons here that should not be missed. Among them, is this: When you are the leader of a national political party, it is always wise to be measured in public expressions of confidence, inclusive of forecasting where the people will locate their precious will/verdict in a general election.
Here, at home, there are famous examples of national political leaders who became too sure of victory at the national polls, without adequate consideration for the prevailing political tides. They were summarily embarrassed. Among other things, folks don’t like when their sacred duty to choose a Government is treated as an object of declaration.
Recall former Prime Minister Michael Manley’s famous political gaffe in Sam Sharpe Square in Montego Bay, St James, prior to the October 30, 1980 General Election. Manley famously declared, “150,000 strong cannot be wrong.” When the votes were counted, the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) had won 51 of the then 60 seats in Parliament, and Edward Seaga became Jamaica’s fifth prime minister.
Recall that after our first female Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller declared she was “touched by the master” the People’s National Party (PNP) had a rally in Half-Way-Tree on Sunday, January 31, 2016 to announce the date for our 17th parliamentary election. I remember watching the spectacle on television. Songs such as Bob Marley’s Three Little Birds, Popcaan’s My God, and Alkaline’s Champion Boy got many ‘forwards’. Popular soca song Differentology by Bunji Garlin was played several times. The PNP’s top brass left the meeting titillated with the false belief that the massive crowd meant certain victory at the polls. They did not learn from former Prime Minister Michael Manley’s famous political blunder in Sam Sharpe Square.
Recall, too, former Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller’s famous faux pas when she was asked at a polling station by a Television Jamaica (TVJ) reporter on election day, February 25, 2016, whether she would step down as PNP president if she lost the general election.
“If I lose? What kind of question are you asking me? Do I look like a loser? Tonight, when I am declared, you will smile,” she exclaimed.
She lost. The JLP defeated the PNP.
There is a fanatical tendency in the PNP regarding election outcomes. I believe it is rooted in their obsession that they are the party of natural choice and, therefore, have a divine right to rule.
Their doctrinaire: “This is PNP country,” is not an accident. Obviously the results of the last two general elections have escaped them.
There they go again
Consider this: ‘Golding confident PNP will win next election’. The news item said, among other things: “Mark Golding, president of the People’s National Party (PNP), is confident that his party will be victorious at the polls in the next general election.”
Ponder this too: “For weeks, the PNP has been hosting various divisional conferences in an effort to revive voters and regain their trust for leadership of the country.” (The Gleaner, September 13, 2023)
Last Sunday the PNP held their 85th annual conference. Of course, Golding, in the days leading up to the conference, had to say something to excite especially the base of his party. I get that! What I don’t get, though, is that he has criss-crossed the island several times and, to date, he has not presented a set of plans and programmes which will grow the economy faster; or solve some of the long-standing problems in education, health, infrastructure (physical and social), and crime and violence, in particular our abnormal murder rate. The regurgitation of truckloads of promises, as happened at the conference last Sunday, does not constitute viable plans and or programmes. Why? The country, to date, has not been provided with any verifiable details of how the PNP will finance its promises.
Previously, I discussed here the approach of fully-costed programmes, which is being used in some developed countries. I firmly believe that this is the approach which Jamaica and developing countries need to adopt in order to lock the door on ‘run wid it’ – a plague which caused untold emotional and financial damage in the 1990s.
We are still suffering with the awful consequences of 90s ‘run wid it’. All well-thinking Jamaicans must democratically resist ‘run wid it’. All well-thinking citizens of this country have a duty to demand verification of the cost of programmes which political parties say they will implement. Will these mean more taxes and/or borrowing? This is basic.
Does not get it
I don’t believe Golding gets it that well-thinking folks are not interested in the platitudes and ideological speak of yesterday.
Consider this: “Why should Jamaicans trust the leadership of the PNP?” The Gleaner story of September 10, 2023, noted these and related details. “Our philosophy is one of upliftment and empowerment of the historically dispossessed masses of the country. So, our orientation is always going to be around making sure that we do everything we can so that the average Jamaican can move forward in life and have a better life for themselves and their children. We believe in investing in people and human capital development is gonna be critical to take Jamaica out of the current trap we’re in of low wage, low tech, low growth.”
This is ideological speak. It is all well and good to say these things. They were said in the 70s and 90s and other times, yet the dispossessed and downtrodden experienced minuscule improvements in their lives. I have demonstrated this fact here previously with copious and verifiable evidence.
In the entire article mentioned, Golding merely rambled on about philosophy and related matters, but did not say how his ideology and philosophy would be translated in practical application of programmes and policies that would functionally better the lives of Jamaicans. Leftists are good at this kind of empty mouthing.
The global economy is still suffering with the giant aftershocks from one of the “worst pandemics in over 100 years”. Folks don’t want to hear ideological verbiage. Jamaica has been fortunate, more fortunate than many countries around the globe. We have not suffered the great economic fallout typical of most small island developing states (SIDS). It is to the eternal credit of the Andrew Holness-led Administration that Jamaica has been praised locally, regionally, and internationally for good management of the economy.
Golding wants to become prime minister of Jamaica, what I believe he needs to be telling us is how he and his team can better what the Holness Administration has done and is doing. Ideological verbosity will not achieve that functional objective.
‘Sight di rake’
On the matter of functionality, in local parlance when we say someone ‘sight the rake’ we mean the person sees an unpleasant event coming and devises various ways to escape it. This is how I interpret Golding’s declaration that he does not want to be popular.
The raison d’être of political parties is the acquisition and/or retention of State power. A week before the Nationwide News Network‘s (NNN) Bluedot scientific polls were released which showed Golding receding in favourability and trailing Prime Minister Andrew Holness in the race to win the next national election, Golding told the country that he was not interested in being popular. How rich!
Consider this: ‘Golding: Not interested in being popular… Opposition Leader wants to be judged for competence, honest and legislative track record’. (The Gleaner, September 10, 2023)
The news item noted, among other things: “Golding, whose positive favourability rating has not topped 15 per cent in the last two publicly released Don Anderson polls, has admitted that that he has no issue being perceived as an average leader if the country’s main Opposition party remains ahead in the polls and, ultimately, forms the next Government.”
Golding’s dodge reminds me of a famous boo boo in 1966 by Edward Heath, then leader of the British Conservatives popularly called the Tories. Here is snippet of one of the most famous political miscalculations ever:
Robin Day, TV Interviewer: “But how low does your personal rating, among your own supporters, have to go before you consider yourself a liability to the party you lead?”
Edward Heath, leader of the Tories: “Well, popularity isn’t everything. In fact it isn’t the most important thing. What matters is doing what you believe to be right, and that’s what I’ve always tried to do, and I shall go on doing. The question doesn’t arise.” (British Broadcasting Corporation [BBC], 1998)
Heath suffered a landslide defeat in the 1966 general election at the hands of Harold Wilson, incumbent prime minister.
One does not need a degree in political science to realise that Golding’s notion that he does not need to be popular is a shaky political defence mechanism. In context, colloquially, we say ‘Him sight the rake.’
No free piggyback ride
The fact is leaders carry their parties, not the reverse. There is no verifiable evidence that this reality has shifted in this country. I was not surprised, therefore, when the NNN Bluedot Polls revealed findings that the PNP, after criss-crossing the country several times in the last two years, is still lagging behind, and its leader is still sinking.
Check this: “Despite the best efforts of the PNP to package and sell him to the electorate, Mark Golding is struggling to be seen as more than just an average performer.”
“The Bluedot pollsters asked 1,294 Jamaicans to rate Golding’s performance on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 is extremely poor and 10 is exceptional. The finding was poor. In fact, a combined total of 54.3 per cent of respondents rated Mark Golding’s performance below average. That’s up from the 51.2 per cent of Jamaicans who rated him below average in the March 2023 survey.” (NNN, September 15, 2023)
The mentioned polls also found that, regarding the management of nine of 10 kitchen table issues the economy, cost of living/inflation, education, crime, health care, unemployment/jobs, housing, water supply, roads, and social security/welfare, more Jamaicans had greater confidence in the JLP.
These findings by the mentioned polls were not surprises.
“If the general election were being held today which party’s candidate would you vote for?” Thirty-one per cent chose the JLP, and 25 per cent selected the PNP, 42 per cent were undecided, and 3 per cent indicated other.
As I pointed out here three Sundays ago, “Specific political ingredients are needed for a party to win a national, that is, local or general election in Jamaica. First the ingredients must all come together in the required amounts. They must be carefully mixed and must be placed in the political oven at the right time — meaning in tandem with public sentiment.”
The PNP, as I see it, is drunk on promise baiting, a primary characteristic of desperation politics.
This factory fault of 89 Old Hope Road was again evident in the trailer load of promises which were regurgitated at their 85th annual conference last Sunday.
Obviously anyone seeking political office can manufacture elaborate promises. Tomfoolery exists in abundance.
Up to the time of writing, the PNP had not presented any objective and/or verifiable mathematics on how it would operationalise and/or fund its mountain of promises. Until it does, all that was promised last Sunday are only empty words, and ‘samfi’ (trickery).
Garfield Higgins is an educator, journalist and a senior advisor to the minister of education and youth. Send comments to the Jamaica Observer or higgins160@yahoo.com.