At the end of last week’s briefing by the Economic Programme Oversight Committee (EPOC) member Donovan Wignall asserted, “The outlook is positive.” This was in response to some of the following highlights shared by EPOC Chairman Keith Duncan:

· Inflation rate continues to trend downwards, ending February 2023 at 7.8 per cent, in comparison to 8.1 per cent at January 2023

· Tax revenue outperformed the third supplemental budget

· Net international reserves of US$3.9 billion as at February 2023 remain strong

· Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 3.4 per cent was estimated for the October to December 2022 quarter, an indication that real GDP has returned to pre-COVID-19 levels and projected to close the fiscal year at 5.1 per cent

· The Government of Jamaica (GOJ) projects 1.6 per cent growth rate for 2023/24

Duncan said the public sector compensation review saw 95 per cent or over 100,000 public sector workers signing the new agreement. As we wrestle with Jamaica’s comparatively low productivity rate, he was looking forward to the implementation of the performance management system for government workers. We in the private sector have long used this method and no diligent person should have any issues with this.

The tourism sector has been the most promising, recording a 105.6 per cent increase over 2019. For January 2023 a total of 215,799 tourists visited Jamaica, representing an increase of 75.8 per cent, in comparison to January 2022, and an increase of 5.7 per cent, in comparison to January 2019. He pointed out that this is a great driver of economic recovery, benefiting multiple sectors, including agriculture and entertainment.

Indeed, there is so much business activity in Kingston that our agency must book hotel meeting rooms well in advance as they have become quite scarce. What a contrast to the pandemic years.

Duncan took a sober look at our labour force, pointing out that 62 per cent have no certification. He said he hoped more citizens would take advantage of the higher level of certification being offered with the prime minister’s announcement that training up to the associate degree level is being offered free of charge by HEART/NSTA Trust.

He called for consensus among our political leaders around education, crime, and violence, and a mindset change in economic opportunities, taking us from basic trading to value-added with more agro-processing. He would like our visitors to be able to spend more time and money in our communities, a vision which hotelier Diana McIntyre-Pike has promoted for decades.

Duncan reminded us of global uncertainties: “The global fight against inflation and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war continues to be the major factors shaping economic outlook. The IMF [International Monetary Fund], in its latest report, projects for global growth to slow from an estimated 3.4 per cent in 2022 to 2.9 per cent in 2023.” However, with regard to the recent failures of banks in the US and Europe, he did not foresee any deleterious effect on local banks.

Donovan Wignall, an expert in logistics and supply chain, noted that significant investment in shipping and logistics facilities could make a significant contribution to GDP growth, and noted that tax incentives would be a good way to encourage this.

The only downer is crime. Wherever we can find it, let us install the advanced technology that will conquer this monster, a terrible burden on our families and communities. As for the minimum wage, it is encouraging but still not a living wage. We hope our churches will lead the charge to mentor and encourage our young people to take advantage of the educational opportunities that could result in a sea change for their lives and for our country.

Clear skies over Old Harbour

Before 2019 a thick plume of smoke emitted by the Old Harbour power plant would guide you to the town. With an investment of US$350 million in 2015, the Southern Jamaica Power Plant, with shareholdings by Marubeni, East West Power, and the Government of Jamaica, was completed in four years. The fresh air around the new plant is testament to an investment which has given a breather to the environment.

At a celebratory event last Thursday, chairman of the Southern Jamaica Power Company (SJPC) Mohamed Majeed took business associates and friends on the challenging journey to make this the most efficient power generation plant in Jamaica: “The South Jamaica Power Center was… constructed to be responsive to addition of more renewables on to the grid while being 68 per cent more efficient and producing 57 per cent less emissions than the retired plant. And has been operating at a world-class standard.”

“A major power project of this size and complexity typically takes five years to complete: two years to develop and three years to construct,” he shared. “But in this case, another 2 plus critical years of arbitration were added on, and all compounded by the years of COVID.”

Majeed describes historic firsts of which many Jamaicans are now aware: “The financing package was precedent setting: local financing of US$215 million was the largest local raise at the time of closing. Lead arranger was NCB [National Commercial Bank], with JCSD [Jamaica Central Securities Depository Limited] as trustees, and consisted of 11 syndicated packages of commercial loans and bonds.”

Then there was a first-of-its-kind fuel supply agreement with New Fortress Energy, providing for the first liquefied natural gas (LNG) floating storage unit natural gas delivery process. The power purchase agreement was the first of its kind assigned to a Jamaica Public Service (JPS) subsidiary. Another first was the operations and maintenance agreement which saw the formation of the aptly named Caribbean Blue Skies Energy, a fully owned subsidiary of JPS, first assigned to SJPC.

Majeed acknowledged the key people who brought the project to completion: “Tatsuya Ozono of Marubeni for his relentless effort in putting this project together; Dan Theoc, for leading the financing deal; the duo of David Cook and Dionne Nugent for the late nights/early morning work on various critical agreements to move this forward; and to Jason Yost, our legal representative from Mercer Thompson, US, whose work on the EPC contract proved to be ever so critical.”

It took experts from Jamaica and several countries to complete the SJPC Plant now led by General Manager Leisa Batiste White with plant operations by Noel Watson. Jamaicans can be proud that this historic investment has given us a cleaner, more reliable electricity supply.

Farewell, Michael Hemming

Michael Hemming’s close friend Winston Ormsby gave a moving tribute to his friend at his recent thanksgiving service. He spoke of Michael’s devotion to his wife of 50 years, Denise, children Ian and Michelle, and his extended family. As a civil engineer, said Ormsby, “He warmed to the tasks of solving complex issues.”

I can attest to Hemming’s dedication to his church, Stella Maris, as he served for many years as an active board director of the Stella Maris Foundation and was only last year elected as the chairman of the church council. Michael was also a dedicated Rotarian and Freemason, rising to one of the highest ranks in the Western Shamrock Lodge.

We extend condolence to the family of Michael Hemming. May his kind soul rest in peace.

lowriechin@aim.com

www.lowrie-chin.blogspot.com