Up to early Wednesday Hurricane Tammy was swirling across the open Atlantic Ocean after dumping heavy rain on Barbuda. Weather forecasters told us that Tammy is expected to strengthen slightly in upcoming days and then weaken before affecting Bermuda as a tropical storm by Saturday morning.

In the south-western Caribbean, experts say the remnants of a tropical depression which formed on Monday near Nicaragua’s south coast could cause flooding and mudslides in that Central American country as well as neighbouring eastern Honduras.

In the Pacific, Tropical Storm Otis was on a path toward Mexico’s southern coast and was expected to be near hurricane strength by early Wednesday.

So far, the hurricane season has produced several tropical cyclones, among them Tropical Storm Harold, which made landfall in south Texas on August 22; Tropical Storm Franklin which hit the Dominican Republic on August 23, then strengthened five days later and subjected Bermuda to tropical storm-force winds.

On August 30, Category 3 Hurricane Idalia made landfall in Florida. A few days later, Hurricane Lee intensified to Category 5 before slamming into Canada’s Atlantic coastline, and later in September Tropical Storm Ophelia made landfall in North Carolina.

There have been others — tropical storms Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Gert, Emily, Jose, Katia, Philippe, Rina, and Sean, as well as hurricanes Don, Margot, and Nigel.

A number of them did not impact land. However, we are pointing to this level of tropical cyclone activity to remind our fellow Jamaicans that, while we have not been impacted so far this year, we need to stay alert because the hurricane season runs until November 30.

We should also take note of the fact that, despite the presence of an intensifying El Niño, which weather experts have told us typically results in less Atlantic hurricane activity, the season has been very active, due largely to very warm sea surface temperatures, a result of global warming.

Earlier this month CNN reported that the battle between warm ocean water and the effect of El Niño has posed a forecasting challenge throughout the hurricane season, as one factor is seemingly negating the other.

The story reported Mr Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher with Colorado State University, as explaining that on balance, the warmer ocean temperatures and weaker winds are winning, and more storms have been able to form than would otherwise be possible in a typical El Niño year.

This clash, CNN said, is expected to continue into November, and quoted Mr Michael Fischer, an associate scientist with University of Miami, as saying, “Usually as we get into the back half of the hurricane season El Niño tends to dominate, even if the Atlantic is warm. But we’ve just never seen anything this warm.”

This, Mr Fischer said, could leave the Atlantic open to more tropical activity in general through the rest of the season, but it remains to be seen. “So we’re kind of in uncharted waters, if you will, and it’s tough to make any kind of confident forecast because of that,” Mr Fischer said.

As we have said before, weather forecasting is notoriously uncertain, although there has been vast improvement in recent years because of rapidly evolving technologies. Our best bet, therefore, is to always be prepared, even beyond the season, because nature is unpredictable.