After hinting at departure for some time, Speaker of the House of Representatives and Member of Parliament for Clarendon North Central Mr Pearnel Charles seems likely to announce his retirement from elected politics tomorrow.

That’s when Finance Minister Mr Nigel Clarke is due to open the 2020/21 parliamentary Budget Debate — which could easily be overshadowed by any such announcement from Mr Charles who has been a political heavyweight for half a century.

That apart, we are left with questions as to what could happen should Mr Charles in fact walk away.

In justifying the recent by-election in Clarendon South Eastern won in a virtual no-contest by the House Speaker’s very likeable son, Mr Pearnel Charles Jr, Prime Minister Andrew Holness said Clarendon South Eastern could not be left unrepresented following the sudden resignation of Mr Ruddy Spencer.

On the face of it, that’s reasonable. Only, though, it seemed odd that, with elections constitutionally due in a year’s time, Mr Spencer should have walked away. He clearly was not ill, nor was there any indication of a pressing matter which would have demanded his departure.

Indeed, what we heard from Mr Spencer in Parliament was that his departure was largely influenced by a desire to resolve a situation in which the ruling Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) has “two fellows and you have only one seat”.

Even that was difficult to understand since the JLP sent Mr Charles Jr to Clarendon South Eastern, which left the other young contender, Mr Robert Nesta Morgan, as the obvious JLP candidate to replace Mr Charles Sr in Clarendon North Central.

The usual practice is for the outgoing Member of Parliament to metaphorically hold the hand of the aspirant so he can become established in the constituency by the time of the general election.

In the case of Clarendon South Eastern, the JLP went the way of a by-election, which — as the political Opposition and other critics pointed out — cost Jamaican taxpayers millions of dollars.

Unofficial word was that Mr Spencer was to take up a diplomatic posting. But surely that desire shouldn’t be a good enough reason to trigger a by-election.

So, to the question: Should Mr Charles Sr walk away tomorrow, what will the prime minister do?

He and his governing party are riding a strong wave of public goodwill. However, as Mr Balford Henry indicated in his latest intriguing commentary on parliamentary business, some Jamaicans won’t take kindly to another seemingly unnecessary by-election at their expense.

After their boycott in Clarendon South Eastern, the Opposition People’s National Party (PNP) would clearly stay away again. But there is nothing to stop someone choosing to run as an Independent candidate, which would then make the multimillion-dollar spend unavoidable.

Up to recently, the easy solution would be to call the general election immediately after the Budget Debate. Polls suggest the ruling party would win easily.

However, the spanner in the works is the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) which is spreading fast across the globe and seems likely to breach Jamaican shores at some point.

Would it be responsible to call an early national election with potential crisis at the nation’s doorstep?

Perhaps Mr Charles will wait a while longer. No doubt Mr Holness is hoping so.