Dry season forecast to be less intense over February to April period

BRIDGETOWN, Barbados (CMC) – The Barbados-based Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) on Monday said that with the likely exception of The Bahamas, Cayman Islands and Cuba, the core of the dry season over the next three months is forecast to be somewhat less intense than usual, with a few more wet days and wet spells.

In its latest edition of the Caribbean Climate Outlook, CariCOF said that with little chance of excessive rainfall through March, “marginal to slight potential for flooding, flash floods and cascading hazards is forecasted for most areas”.

“This potential is expected to increase to moderate in April. In contrast, drought concerns will likely continue in Cuba and dry spells are expected to be frequent across the region. No significant episodes of heat discomfort are expected through March, but heat waves may occur in April, particularly in Belize, Cuba, Jamaica and Trinidad,” CariCOF noted.

It said as of January this year, moderate or worse short-term drought has developed in Cuba, and eastern and southern Jamaica; while worse long-term drought has developed in Cuba, eastern and southern Jamaica, and northern Suriname.

At the end of May this year, long-term drought is evolving in Central and Eastern Cuba, and might possibly develop or continue in western Cuba, Dominican Republic, and St Vincent, CariCOF continued.

“Rainfall totals from February to April are likely to be no higher or even lower than usual in the Bahamas, Cayman Islands and Cuba; but at least as high as usual in the Guianas, Hispaniola, the US Caribbean territories and the islands south of Guadeloupe,” it added.

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