THE majority of voters — six of every 10 — would like to see the back of Edward Seaga and someone else at the helm of the Opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), the Stone Organisation found in a recent poll for the Observer.

This finding was against the backdrop of the apparent end, over the past year, of the JLP’s internal squabbles and seems to suggest that Seaga remains the biggest liability to his party returning to office after 13 years in the political wilderness.

Conversely, Seaga’s continued leadership of the JLP would be a substantial asset in the quest by the People’s National Party (PNP) to gain a fourth consecutive term in government in general elections, which are to take place by yearend.

Stone did the survey in the first week of February, interviewing 1,203 persons in 44 communities, across the island. The sample was made up of people 18 and over. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus three per cent.

When Stone asked people about their attitude towards Seaga’s continued leadership of the JLP, 62 per cent said he should step down.

Only a quarter (25 per cent) of voting age Jamaicans said he should stay, while 13 per cent had no opinion on the matter.

Stone raised the issue of Seaga’s leadership in the context of the party’s four percentage point slippage in support between last July and November, to 25.4 per cent, although it remained ahead of the PNP (20 per cent).

“The issue of the Opposition leader’s tenure in the top post in the JLP is still not settled among a significant majority of the electorate,” Stone said.

In fact, the proportion of the electorate who say that Seaga should step down is the same as when Stone last raised the issue in a private survey two years ago, the pollsters explained.

At that time, there were still lingering disputes in the JLP over Seaga’s leadership and the party was two points adrift of the PNP in popular support.

Now, however, despite the identical 62 per cent who believe that he should depart, backing for Seaga to remain as JLP leader is substantially firmer — up seven percentage points, from 18 per cent to 25 per cent.

Nonetheless, Stone said that the current numbers “must be a worrying factor for the JLP” in its bid to turn the electoral tide after is long stint in Opposition.

Question:

In recent years some people were saying that Opposition Leader Edward Seaga should step down and allow someone else to lead the party. Do you believe he should step down or should he remain as leader?

Answers

He should step down……………………………………………62%

He should stay on as leader……………………………………25%

Don’t know……………………………………………………….. 13%

.

………………………………………………………………………100%

Stone comment:

The issue of the Opposition leader’s tenure in the top post in the JLP is still not settled among a significant majority in the electorate.

The February 2002 Stone Polls has echoed some of our past poll findings.

In a privately commissioned May 2000 Stone poll we asked the question: Do you believe Mr Seaga should resign from the leadership of the JLP? The answers were as follows:

Yes, he should resign………………………………………….62%

No, he should not………………………………………………18%

Don’t know………………………………………………………18%

Won’t say………………………………………………………… 2%

.

…………………………………………………………………….100%

Stone comment:

At that time, the JLP was still lagging the PNP by two percentage points (PNP 19%, JLP 17%) when the main parties had scored their lowest ever scores in Stone Polls.

At that time, the percentage who wanted Seaga to remain (18%) was statistically similar to the 17% voter support for the JLP.

The present percentage who wants him to stay on is at 25% and must be a worrying factor for the JLP which wants to win the next elections and has been in opposition for close to 13 years.

The JLP is not now enjoying the luxury of the PNP which has two candidates publicly acclaimed as successors to the present leader, P J Patterson, who is himself not very popular at this time.