THE vagaries of electoral politics in a functioning multi-party democracy can often result in major surprises. As happened, for instance, at St Lucia’s general election on Monday, when the expected victor ended up as the loser, and an octogenarian is due to be sworn in today as the new prime minister.

In a stunning reversal of results predicted by opinion polls within the past month, the incumbent St Lucia Party (SLP) of Prime Minister Dr Kenny Anthony was defeated by the United Workers Party (UWP) of 82-year-old Sir John Compton with an 11-6 parliamentary majority.

Both the usually reliable opinion poll of the Barbados-based Caribbean Development Research Services (CADRES), as well as that of Jamaican pollster Bill Johnson – who does polling for the Gleaner and People’s National Party (PNP) – had forecast a comfortable third-term victory for Anthony’s SLP.

Johnson’s 14-3 victory prediction for the SLP and CADRES’ worse-case scenario of 10-7 were turned upside down with an estimated 60 per cent voter response by the estimated 135,000 eligible electors, to record a shock defeat for the incumbent, although the preliminary results show they were separated by just about 2,000 of the popular valid votes, or approximately three per cent.

In accordance with the electoral laws of St Lucia, whose economy revolves largely around tourism, the banana industry and services sector, a recount of the results in all 17 constituencies were taking place yesterday ahead of an official declaration of the results.

A few of the seats were won by the UWP or retained by the SLP with slender margins. However, officials of the electoral office confirmed yesterday that the stage is set for Compton, a former long-serving prime minister, to be sworn in today as the country’s new head of government.

The oath-taking ceremony by Compton would coincide with today’s national holiday – Discovery Day – unless postponed by the governor-general for tomorrow.

His appointment would underscore an unprecedented occurrence in the electoral politics of the Caricom region for a former retired prime minister to return to the helm of government at age 82. He had officially stayed out of elections for nine years ,,but very much involved in behind-the-scenes UWP leadership politics right up to 2005 when he openly staged his come-back and forced the resignation of his one-time anointed successor Dr Vaughn Lewis.

Economy and crime

Defeat for Anthony’s administration coincided at a time of successive years of economic growth, ranging from three to five per cent; unemployment at a record low of approximately 15 per cent – normally well over 20 per cent – and with the latest report of the World Bank Group profiling St Lucia at ‘top of the list’ among OECS states in global ranking as the country for doing business.

Capping the deficit factors was the nationally disturbing image of gun-related crimes, including murders and a perceived inability of the government to bring it under effective control.

This situation was well exploited by the UWP with its appeal to voters to “trust us” to stop the criminal rampage, alongside its assurances to restore the once vital banana industry to a former glory period.

That was before changes in the European Union’s banana import regime had created horrors for the banana economies of all of the Windward Islands, Dominica being the worse affected.

The new government now faces the challenge to fulfil its pledges on crime-control and recovery of the banana industry, both of which could well come to haunt the new administration.

Compton also has the self-created task of unearthing the alleged nepotism and corrupt practices with which he had accused the Anthony administration, during what was regarded as a “dirty, mud-slinging” election campaign.

On Monday evening when Anthony conceded defeat and congratulated Compton, the SLP head told the media that the UWP administration would now have to “deal with the wounds” created, and stressed, for the benefit of supporters and detractors, that: “I know we have been a government of honour and integrity and I am certain that in good time all of that would emerge…”