THE formlines and statistics point unerringly to the Michael McIntosh part-owned and trained bay gelding Prince Of Arabia as having the best chance of landing the $715,000 Restricted Allowance 11 event for native-bred three-year-olds (NW2) and imported three-year-old and upward maidens over 1,600 metres at Caymanas Park today at 4:05 pm.

The event will serve as the principal race on the eight-race midweek card in the absence of sponsored race, except for the $458,000 Alex’s Import Ltd ‘Dig Out’ Handicap last race staple at 5:45 pm. First post at 2:00 pm.

With no imported runners in the seven-horse field and coming in at top weight of 52.0kg for favourite rider Dane Nelson who is enjoying much recent success in the saddle, Prince Of Arabia looks to have this one in the bag based on the composition of the field.

Part-owned by Kelvin Jones, who is also the breeder along with McIntosh, the three-year-old bay gelding by Alisios out of Sub Zero (French Champagne) has been well prepared to leave the grade behind with an expected good performance among horses he has beaten in the past, while allowing them weight. And now sitting at almost level weights with the field and in particular his main rivals — Cruiser and The Diplomat — it will take an exceptional performance by either to deny him.

Cruiser could prove more than anyone else the main danger, but has been beaten four times out of their last five meetings. However, with lightweight jockey Peter Bryan replacing inform female claiming apprentice Georgina Sergeon to come in at 51.5kg, it could be close going. Nonetheless, while Cruiser could be better bred to stay, he may lack the finishing speed of Prince Of Arabia and this could be his undoing.

Ones To Watch

Race 1 Butcher Gal (Trevor Simpson)

Race 2 Pat N Gold (David McKenzie)

Race 3 I Am I Am (Trevor Simpson)

Race 4 Mr Jumbo (Jodeien Anderson)

Race 5 Prince Of Arabia (Dane Nelson)

Race 6 Itainteasybeingme (Richard Mairs)

Race 7 Flawless Talent (Shane Ellis)

Race 8 Simply Awesome (Oneil Mullings)

— H Williams