In one of the most memorable boxing matches of all time, in November 1980, the bullish middleweight from Panama, Roberto Durán, took on the sprightly, constantly dancing pretty boy, the American Sugar Ray Leonard.

According to Leonard, who was a much more exciting fighter than Durán and definitely the crowd puller, “The whole fight, I was moving, I was moving. And Voom! I snapped his head back with a jab. Voom! I snapped it back again. He tried to get me against the ropes, I’d pivot, spin off and Pow! Come under with a punch.”

With Sugar Ray having his way with the seemingly inflexible Panamanian, Durán found it an impossible mission to tag the American. Towards the end of the eighth round, in an unprecedented fashion, Durán turned his back to Leonard and faced the referee, saying to him, “No más” (No more). Leonard won by a TKO.

Just as we thought that it was safe to consign the hurricane season to its end and free ourselves from any thought of more troubled weather, Tomás (tropical depression at the time of writing this) has made 2010 the third busiest Atlantic season in history. So far we have had 12 hurricanes and nine tropical storms/depressions. And just in case we needed a reminder, Nicole, which dumped three days of rain on us at the end of September, was no hurricane.

Serious though it is, Tomás is playing with our collective sanity. It has wreaked havoc on our sister islands to the south east of us. It has been my observation that once a cyclonic system enters the Caribbean at below 15 degrees north latitude, Jamaica is always in its cross hairs.

Yesterday Dr Jeff Masters, founder of Weather Underground, posted the following on his blog, “As this record-breaking third busiest Atlantic hurricane season in history unfolded, I marvelled that earthquake-ravaged Haiti managed to dodge significant rain-making tropical storms throughout the peak months of August, September, and October. Cruel fate will not allow Haiti to escape the entire season unscathed, though, as a late-season November storm already proved to be a killer – Tomás www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201021.html – takes aim at Haiti.

“Tomás has struggled mightily over the past few days, and is now a tropical depression. However, even if it does not reach hurricane strength, Tomás is still likely to bring heavy rains capable of causing disastrous flooding in defenceless Haiti. It doesn’t take much rain to cause a flooding disaster in Haiti – ordinary, seasonal heavy rain has killed 23 people in southern Haiti over the past month, including 12 people in Port-au-Prince last weekend.

“According to the Associated Press www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gDIrhDjE4Q0aBiJiSM4ZaPrHEXIQ?docId=27c3cb77a266418ca423e8c0a13ed225, most of last weekend’s deaths occurred when surging rivers burst through houses built in ravines. With the soil already saturated from last weekend’s rains, the stage is set in Haiti for a significant flooding disaster capable of causing heavy loss of life.

“I believe it is 30 per cent likely that Tomás will stay far enough west of the Haiti earthquake zone so that rains will be limited to 1 to 4 inches to the region, causing only modest flooding problems and little or no loss of life. More likely (40 per cent chance) is the possibility of major flooding due to 4 to 8 inches of rain. Finally, I expect a 30 per cent chance that heavier rain of 5 to 20 inches over Haiti will cause catastrophic flooding as experienced in 2008’s four hurricanes. Potential flooding disasters are not possible just in the earthquake zone, but also in northern Haiti and the southwestern peninsula of Haiti. So, keep praying for the people of Haiti, they need all the help they can get.”

Jamaica is not yet out of the woods and a stalling Tomás will not help this. Said the weather expert Masters, “The ridge of high pressure pushing Tomás to the west has weakened, allowing Tomás to slow down to a forward speed of 4 mph this morning. A trough of low pressure approaching the eastern US has now begun to pull Tomás more to the west-northwest, and a sharper northward turn will develop today, and become a north-northeast motion by Friday.

“This motion should take Tomás just east of Jamaica and over western Haiti on Friday. NHC is giving www.wunderground.com/tropical/at201021.windprob.html#a_topad Port-au-Prince, Haiti, a 46 per cent chance of receiving tropical storm force winds, and a 5 per cent chance of hurricane force winds. These odds are 45 per cent and 4 per cent , respectively for Kingston, Jamaica, and 19 per cent and 2 per cent for Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic. Heavy rain from Tomás will begin affecting Jamaica and southwestern Haiti beginning on Thursday afternoon, and will spread to eastern Cuba, the Dominican Republic, and the rest of Haiti by Friday morning. Tomás will probably not be as bad for Jamaica as tropical storm Nicole en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Nicole_%282010%29 in September, which killed 14 and did US$245 million in damage. Nicole’s rains lasted three days in Jamaica, and Tomás’ rains should last at most 1 1/2 days on the island.”

So, what do we do? We should batten down and, at the very least, prepare for gusty winds and lots of rain. If the models of the weather experts fail to hold, the worst-case scenario for Jamaica is a north west movement of Tomás, an intensification to hurricane strength and a significant decrease in the forward movement. If this happens, our worst fears will be realised even though a hurricane Tomás is not expected to be anything near the ferocity of Gilbert which wasted the island with a direct east to west hit in September 1988.

That we have to live with this phenomenon for six months of every year is frightening in the extreme. Granted, Jamaica discovered hurricane straps after the Gilbert rebuilding efforts, but there are still some of us poorer people who live in flood-prone areas. And even if our roofs are secure and we live far from gully banks, the sound of hurricane-force winds everlastingly gusting is not for the faint of heart.

Said a lady to me on Tuesday when the nation was concerned about Tomás and its likely effect on us. “When Gilbert lick wi in 1988, di amount a people inna mi house who ‘ad running belly was just too much.” Yes, “nervous stomach” was rife then.

We here in Jamaica do not want Haiti to be ravaged by yet another disaster, but we have ourselves to consider. Said Dr Masters of Haiti, “It now appears unlikely that Tomás will have time to grow beyond Category 1 hurricane strength before landfall in Haiti on Friday. National Hurricane Centre is giving Tomás a 5 per cent chance of reaching Category 3+ strength, which is a reasonable forecast. With the atmosphere expected to be very moist, it is likely that Tomás will dump very heavy rains of 4 to 8 inches over much of Haiti, even if Tomás strikes as a tropical storm. Rains of this magnitude are capable of causing heavy loss of life due to extreme floods running down Haiti’s deforested mountain slopes.”

As best as you can, prepare yourselves. If nothing happens you will still be glad you did. If our worst fears are realised, it is our preparation that will allow us to bounce back and say to Tomás, “No más, back off, we survived worse than you!” Good luck.

observemark@gmail.com