In the days and months ahead, both the ruling Jamaica Labour Party and the Opposition People’s National Party will be renewing its courtship with western Jamaica, especially the parish of St James.

Contrary to the cynical views of some political pundits, St James continues to be a weather-vane parish that often indicates in which direction the wind is blowing with respect to party dominance nationally. In the 2007 general election, the JLP picked up three out of the four seats in the parish, begrudgingly ceding South St James after an initial victory shout. When the dust settled, Dr Horace Chang was back in the saddle in North West St James after trouncing PNP newcomer Henry McCurdy; Clive Mullings in West Central became the giant killer when he ended veteran politician Francis Tulloch’s seemingly insurmountable winning streak and Edmund Bartlett cruised back into the winner’s circle after dispensing with Donald Colomathi. On election night, challenger Noel Donaldson who saw himself as part of the JLP’s dream team saw defeat snatched from the jaws of victory when a resilient Derrick Kellier edged him at the finish line.

In the aftermath, Dr Chang as deputy leader emerged as the king of the hill with a peripatetic Ed Bartlett using his tourism portfolio to keep himself in full view of the throne. A somewhat unassuming and low-key Clive Mullings, initially seen as Bruce Golding’s “blue-eyed boy” in the parish, eventually got a “black eye” when he was relieved of his energy and telecommunications portfolio.

Meanwhile, at the local government level, Chang and Bartlett reached an uneasy compromise with Councillor Charles Sinclair Jr of the Flanker Division being installed as chairman of the St James Parish Council and mayor of Montego Bay, while Councillor Cecil Davis of the Somerton Division was gifted with the post of deputy chairman and deputy mayor. In real terms therefore, Chang, who had earlier deposed Bartlett for the deputy leader slot, had become the JLP’s head honcho in the west. And as water and housing minister, he not only had a national profile but also the command of the resources to make his presence felt in his constituency. No doubt, sticking to the adage, “Parson christen ‘im pickney first”, the politically astute Chang has been cementing his hold on North-West St James by providing housing, water, sewerage and infrastructural solutions, so much so that some of his detractors have accused him of seeking to establish a garrison constituency – a charge he has vehemently denied.

The PNP in the meantime has been licking its wounds and behaving like a spurned bride at the altar of opportunity. So it was a hard blow when the JLP almost exiled them from St James. Indeed, former PNP President and Prime Minister PJ Patterson reportedly described bitterly the JLP’s shellacking like a dagger thrust into his heart. This remark came in the wake of the many projects that the Patterson administration had implemented or started in the parish in general and Montego Bay in particular. And even today, the JLP has been more or less reaping the fruits of PNP labour (no pun intended) and unabashedly so!

At present, the political climate is about to get hot as Dr Chang’s belated attempts to retain his deputy leadership post at the expense of a forceful bid from Agriculture Minister Dr Christopher Tufton is fast becoming a time bomb. Belated, because Chang had been eyeing the chairmanship of the JLP and had to back-track when the incumbent Dr Kenneth Baugh, his in-law, decided to stay the course. Tufton, who is one of the high-profile NDM-ites who joined the JLP when Golding was courted and crowned, has become a shining star, what with his agriculture portfolio showing many positive outcomes. It is also felt that he is Golding’s preferred choice as well as that of the G2K who want to see an infusion of young blood in the top echelons of the party.

Strategically though, Tufton’s rise may not augur well in the west: St James as against St Elizabeth has always been seen as the epicentre of party power and influence in the western region. A Chang defeat at this time could demoralise his constituents as well as the wider Montego Bay community and help further alienate some disgruntled anti-Golding Labourites. Tufton’s ascendancy, on the other hand, can woo back the business class across the region, a grouping that Chang has not found much favour with, whether wittingly or unwittingly. It would also bolster Bartlett’s influence in the west as the North-West MP would be seen as a wounded lion.

In the meantime, the PNP is watching and hoping that the JLP will capitulate into disarray as this contest intensifies. Already, there is much “cass-cass” going on which has seen Dr Tufton firing off a salvo of warning and caution, lest the party suffer irreparable damage at a time when the Manatt/Dudus affair has it against the ropes. A JLP rift will benefit the PNP camp which so far is yet to find its way back to the political hustings in a meaningful way.

But while the Bruce Golding-led JLP may be imploding, the Portia Simpson Miller-led PNP appears to be treading water. One of the serious challenges it faces is how to identify a slate of candidates in St James that can counter the JLP’s highly touted star team. The bottom line is citizens of St James are more likely to vote for candidates who are Cabinet material, and so far, outside of the war horse Derrick Kellier who may well run again and win, the other potential candidates are yet to show any mettle. The Phillips and Simpson Miller feud, though settled, still has some residual effects, one of which is who is seen supporting whom in terms of who should get delegates’ support – a most narrow-minded approach when the party needs to settle the candidate issue and begin to build the template for the ousting of the JLP who will be hard to beat in St James.

All in all, exciting days are ahead as the JLP seeks to consolidate its gains and the PNP goes all out to reinvent itself for a still sceptical electorate. Let the games begin!

lloydbsmith@hotmail.com