The year is 2013 and the government has yielded to the demands of the special interest pressure groups, and rescinded the Revised and Reformed Treaty of Chaguaramas and withdrawn from Caricom. The following is a brief speculative scenario of what might be the outcome of such a development.

Fast-forward to 2018, when the 10-year basket of goods containing Jamaican products is to become “zero rated” under the European Partnership Agreement (EPA). However, this development is now meaningless because ,with Jamaica’s withdrawal from Caricom, the relationship with the European Union embedded in the EPA has been fatally ruptured. As an immediate consequence, the European Commission has applied General System of Preference tariffs to all Jamaican exports to the EU.

Impact studies show Jamaica’s trade surplus with the EU was mainly due to products from the extractive industries, chief of which is alumina that under the GSP tariff has become uncompetitive. The extensive opportunities for services created in the EPA, particularly for entertainers and business persons, were withdrawn by the EC and visa requirements tightened. Funding from the European Development Fund (EDF) and other financial organisations are being renegotiated. An in-depth analysis of the EPA is being conducted to determine what benefits, if any, can be salvaged.

With Jamaica’s exit from Caricom, the remaining 14 member states have retained their identity as a Regional Trade Agreement , with a Customs Union and duties applied on Jamaican goods imported into the Eastern Caribbean member territories. Jamaican visitors to Caricom countries are required to have entry visas, while similar reciprocal visa measures apply to Caricom visitors to Jamaica.

Caricom businesses located in Jamaica have been recalibrated for tax purposes, and new regulations regarding the movement of capital, repatriation of profits and work permits are in effect. Articles 30 to 44 in the Revised and Reformed Treaty of Chaguaramas concerning “Establishment, Services, Capital and Movement of Community Nationals” are being carefully studied to realign the articles with the now redundant Revised and Reformed Treaty of Chaguaramas. The entire treaty is being reassessed and on completion it would form the basis of Jamaica’s new Trade Policy with third countries and the restructured Caricom.

With the newly estranged Cave Hill and St Augustine campuses, UWI Mona and other tertiary institutions are rethinking their significantly reduced role, particularly the spectre of lower funding. Serious consideration is being given to recruiting North American students similar to Grenada’s highly beneficial experience.

The vigorous drive to improve and diversify Jamaica’s tourism product has borne fruit with a vastly increased number of tourist arrivals, now that the world recession has effectively ended. However, a problem still exists with the Air Jamaica relationship, its expanded routes and availability of competitively priced seats to Jamaica.

Since Jamaica’s withdrawal from Caricom, investors have proved difficult to attract. According to an earlier prime minister, “to attract investment, the government must be seen to be effective”. This observation could eventually include creating the right incentives, taxation regime, and ensuring the availability of a final court of appeal to adjudge disputes. Jamaica is yet to disengage from the Judicial Committee of the Privy Council while it negotiates as a third-party engagement with the Caribbean Court of Justice. It was decided not to proceed with a court of final appeal in Jamaica as the project proved unpopular and unaffordable.

Bilateral trade agreements to which Jamaica was a signatory in the former name of Caricom, with Colombia and Venezuela, for example, are being renegotiated by Jamaica as a third party in its sovereign right. This also applies with the US and Canada – still the major export markets for Jamaica’s goods and services. The new trade agreement with China is now heavily invested in infrastructure and industrial projects. However, with only the domestic market remaining to service, the 14 residual Caricom states remain outside the ambit of duty-free access that prevailed before Jamaica seceded from the regional group that is still protected by the Common External Tariff (CET). This constraint has led to tougher negotiations with potential trading partners. With low energy costs, a short transit time and readily available goods, Trinidad remains a main supplier of competitively priced duty-paid products. Jamaica’s bound tariff rates in the WTO have been reduced by 20 per cent, significantly lowering applied tariff rates.

Negotiating as an independent third party has presented new problems and opportunities. Having relinquished the economies of scale present with the former Caricom structure, Jamaica as a sole target market with a population of only 2.8 million is confronted with limited offers from prospective investors. Comparisons with Singapore and Mauritius are inconsistent with Jamaica’s economic problems of crime, a rate still above world average, high energy cost, as the LNG project is yet to come on stream; corruption, as Jamaica’s rating in the Corruption Perception Index remains high; declining exports; the national debt overhang still above 120 per cent of GDP, and the limited institutional capacity to manage the country’s administrative affairs.

Five years have passed since Jamaica left Caricom, and the perceived benefits from this radical move are yet to be seen, and in effect, circumstances have produced an adverse unexpected sea change with complex difficulties, whose solutions require a great deal of time and expense. Remittances have increased, with the diaspora understanding the necessity to assist relatives at home in these tough times of the promised “soon come” transition to greater prosperity.

Jamaica’s future is with today’s Caricom, flawed as it may be. Its energies should be dedicated towards improving the regional community as it progresses to the Caribbean Single Market and Economy.