The arrival in Haiti of Mr Jean-Bertrand Aristide on Friday — ahead of the second round of presidential elections — will complicate the already enigmatic and mercurial politics of that Caricom nation.

Mr Aristide, who served as Haiti’s first democratically elected president, won genuine mass support when he became the focal point and persuasive voice of the pro-democracy movement which opposed Jean-Claude ‘Baby Doc’ Duvalier and a succession of military dictators.

Indeed, Mr Aristide won the general election of 1990 when he was supported by 67 per cent of the voters, but was ousted in a military coup in September 1991 after less than a year in office. The illegal military regime collapsed in 1994 under sustained US pressure and the palpable threat of a military invasion by the Americans who brokered Mr Aristide’s return to serve out the remaining period of his presidential term.

Realising that he had to diffuse the virulent opposition of the rich elite, Mr Aristide agreed to roll back several populist and democracy-promoting reforms.

When his term ended in February 1996, it set off a constitutional controversy (similar to the recent issue in Honduras) because the constitution did not allow him to serve consecutive terms. There was a complex legal and political dispute over whether Mr Aristide should serve the three years he had lost while in exile, or whether his term in office should end five years from the date of his inauguration. The latter interpretation prevailed.

He was again elected by a huge majority as the head of a new political party, Fanmi Lavalas, and resumed the presidency in 2001. But in 2004, Mr Aristide was forced to demit office and flee the country for exile in the Central African Republic. He was rescued from uncomfortable circumstances by a mission led by Mr Randal Robinson of TransAfrica with Ms Sharon Hay-Webster, representing the government of Jamaica. After a brief sojourn in Jamaica, due to the kindness and courage of then Prime Minister P J Patterson, Mr Aristide was accommodated in South Africa.

Admirably, Caricom set an example to the world when it called for the United Nations to conduct an investigation into Mr Aristide’s removal, but this did not materialise, allegedly because of pressure by the US.

As it now stands, Mr Aristide is the only politically active person in Haiti that has genuine mass support.

What impact his return and residence in Haiti will have on today’s elections and the future of politics is an open question. What is certain, however, is that his presence will have some effect — depending in particular on what he says and what he does publicly. Anyone who doubts that need only look at the massive welcome and outpouring of popular support he received in Port-au-Prince on Friday.

Mr Aristide, we believe, could be a destabilising force or he could play a critical role in healing the nation, maintaining peace and ensuring democracy by being a political watchman and conscience of the nation. We hope for the sake of the Haitian people that his political contribution will be a constructive one.

And while the past cannot be forgotten, Mr Aristide should be given a chance to contribute to Haiti’s development. In his regard, we must bear in mind the considerable propaganda and misinformation which have been propagated by his opponents inside and outside of Haiti.

We should recall the words of Mr Randal Robinson in his book The Agony of Haiti.: “Sadly, real democracy remains a long way off for Haiti… as long as foreign powers, directly or indirectly, remain bent on preventing Jean-Bertrand Aristide, Haiti’s most widely respected humanist and democrat, from returning home to his own country.”