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Business, Financials
May 17, 2011

Oil settles lower

NEW YORK, United States – Oil fell again yesterday after disappointing reports on factory production and new home construction raised more concerns about the US economic recovery and future demand. The dollar fell against other currencies as well, which helped crude regain some losses.

Benchmark crude for June delivery lost 47 cents to settle at US$96.91 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It dropped as low as US$95.02 at one point in the session.

The price of oil has fallen over 14 per cent from a high of US$113.52 on May 2.

The Federal Reserve said factory production fell 0.4 per cent in April, the first decline in 10 months. A key reason was a drop in auto manufacturing after the Japan earthquake and tsunami led to a parts shortage. Industrial production has risen nearly 11.5 per cent since hitting a recession-low in June 2009 but is still below its pre-recession peak in September 2007.

“If your industrial production is down, it means you’re not creating as much. It means the overall economic situation isn’t that good, meaning that demand for goods probably isn’t going to be as strong, including crude oil,” Telvent DTN analyst Darin Newsom said. “It’s just another bearish economic indicator that we aren’t fully on the road to recovery yet.”

Meanwhile the Commerce Department reported that new home construction fell 10.6 per cent last month from March. Much of the decline occurred because apartment and condominium construction plummeted. The seasonally adjusted rate fell to 523,000 homes per year, which is less than half the 1.2 million homes per year that economists consider a sign of a healthy market.

The dollar initially got a boost from Europe’s debt woes, particularly worries that more will have to be done to rescue the Greek economy. Since commodities like oil are priced in dollars, a weaker dollar makes them more of a bargain for buyers who use foreign currencies, so the price falls. Oil got back some of its losses as the dollar weakened later in the day.

Investors also are concerned about China’s efforts to slow its economy and keep inflation under control. China is the world’s second biggest oil consumer behind the US, and traders are concerned about diminishing demand.

“The rationale for justifying US$100 oil is taking on water,” oil analyst Stephen Schork said.

The good news for drivers is that lower oil prices mean lower prices at the pump. The national average for regular gasoline was US$3.944 a gallon (almost a dollar a gallon) on Tuesday. That’s about four cents less than on Friday but 11.7 cents more than a month ago, according to AAA, Wright Express and the Oil Price Information Service.

Drivers across America have been buying less gas because of high pump prices. The latest weekly survey of retail gas sales from MasterCard SpendingPulse shows demand down for the eighth straight week. Analysts expect the Energy Department on Wednesday to report that the nation’s gasoline supplies grew last week, because Americans are using less and refineries are starting to produce more.

Natural gas fell 3 percent, down 13.3 cents to US$4.246 per 1,000 cubic feet (28.32 cubic metres). Lower factory production means less natural gas is used to generate power.

In other Nymex trading in June contracts, heating oil fell 2.93 cents to settle at US$2.8451 per gallon (3.79 litres), gasoline futures lost 1.18 cents to settle at US$2.9193 a gallon (3.79 litres).

In London, Brent crude for June delivery fell 85 cents to settle at US$109.99 on the ICE Futures exchange.

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