Chelsea’s success is due to consistent team selecton, not squad depth
FOOTBALL is full of accepted truths, things we are told so often and by so many experts that we don’t even question them.
Today I am going to tackle one such axiom and explain why, despite being cited for years as the benchmark, Chelsea’s squad actually has considerably less depth than those of any of their rivals, and how it might cost them by May.
This might seem absurd on first impression. Everyone knows they’ve spent huge sums of money putting together a world-class squad with multiple players in each position and that you only get to the top of the table with depth and quality. This is another of those ‘facts’ pundits and commentators will breezily palm us off with whenever possible; it’s an easy sentence to wheel out to explain success and it saves them having to think too hard about things.
But think about things we must, and even the slightest consideration reveals that different squads have different needs. Some play in Europe, some go further than others in cup competitions, some find themselves in mid-table without much to play for and can afford to rest players more; certain teams will play over 20 games more than others and therefore need more depth. So far, though, I’ve only served to weaken my own argument: Chelsea play in Europe, they have gone to the final of the League Cup and they are in a title fight where every league game is essential.
But have they got there through careful rotation and use of their squad? Actually no, quite the opposite in fact: their team selection so far has been incredibly consistent. There is a website which counts an ‘injury league’, in which a side is awarded one point for each week of the season that an individual player misses. The unfortunate Newcastle sit top but second, with 185 ‘points’ is Manchester United, and behind them in third lie Arsenal with 170. Amazingly, despite the huge demands placed on their players so far this season, Chelsea are bottom of the entire table, with just 53. To put that in another context, Chelsea had accumulated fewer injury points after 20 weeks than Arsenal and United had after three. Liverpool and Manchester City, incidentally, lie fifth and 15th, respectively.
This is the true source of their success so far. They have nine core players who would, all things being equal, be guaranteed to start any big game (Courtois, Terry, Cahill, Ivanovic, Matic, Oscar, Fabregas, Hazard and Costa) and between them they have missed just 15 league games all season. The equivalent players at Arsenal have missed 94 matches. The average ‘key’ Arsenal player has missed an astonishing 10.4 of the 23 games played so far, the average ‘key’ Chelsea player just 1.6. A comparison with United is tough as not even Louis van Gaal seems to know who his core players are, but we have seen that their problems have been even worse.
Clearly, therefore, this is not an issue of squad depth, rather
one of simply being able to consistently field your strongest XI. In the last couple of weeks, though, we have seen Chelsea use the outlying members of their squad and it has been particularly telling: a 4-2 defeat to Bradford in the FA Cup and, without just Fabregas and Costa, a desperate, inglorious draw with City, both of which came at home. Take away a couple of key players and they are a very different team because they simply don’t have such quality in reserve. We can, of course, only speculate at how the table would be different were those injury statistics reversed, but recent events suggest Jose Mourinho’s side would not be enjoying a seven-point cushion at the top.
This is not to belittle Chelsea, though. Football is not just about 11 players on the pitch plus a manager, it is about the work of everybody in the entire club and keeping key players fit is something they are incredibly good at. It is not down to luck — that is yet another of those shallow pundit clichés — and the pattern of this season is not one off, similar numbers have been emerging repeatedly year after year.
I have been told of a medical consultant who visited Arsenal this season and came away in disbelief at the state of the backroom staff. Clubs employ doctors, physios, strength and conditioning coaches, massage therapists and a range of other personnel to look after their players. A club where everybody is working to a system, aware of what one another is doing and functioning together can see a huge fall in the occurrence of preventable injuries. At Arsenal, I am told, each person was just haphazardly doing his own thing, all pulling in different directions with no cohesive plan. At United, who also perennially sit near the top of the injury league, you could expect to see a similar thing, but not at Chelsea.
The big question is whether or not Chelsea can keep this up all season. It is in these final few months that cracks start to appear and from February onwards form, whether good or bad, has an uncanny knack of accelerating itself until everything either comes together or falls apart. In truth, I do expect to see the title at Stamford Bridge in May and if that proves to be the case it will be because they have a very strong first XI and a tactically astute manager.
But just as much credit should also be given to the unseen faces who make sure it is those key players who are the ones out on the pitch week in, week out.
Hugo Saye is an English journalist who spent nine months in Jamaica shadowing 2012-2013 National Premier League champions Harbour View FC, where he spoke openly with stars about both sport and politics and discovered the importance of football in the Caribbean island, which formed the background of his book, Of Garrisons and Goalscorers.