The battle for the five parliamentary seats in St James in the coming general election has intensified since Tuesday’s nomination of 11 candidates in the western parish.

The constituencies to be hotly contested are St James West Central, St James East Central, St James South, St James North West and St James Central.

And winning them is of vital importance to both major political organisations — the ruling People’s National Party (PNP) and the Opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) — in their bid to form the government for the next four years.

But if the 2011 general election is anything to go by, then all eyes could be on St James on February 25.

The PNP won the then newly created St James Central constituency when publisher Lloyd B Smith defeated the JLP’s Heroy Clarke by a margin of only 98 votes. In St James South, the PNP’s Derrick Kellier trounced the JLP’s Homer Davis, while Sharon Ffolkes Abrahams (PNP) beat the JLP’s Clive Mullings by 673 votes.

The JLP’s Ed Bartlett, at that time, held on to the St James East Central seat, narrowly beating the PNP’s Cedric Stewart by a margin of 174 votes, while the JLP’s Dr Horace Chang was victorious over the PNP’s Henry McCurdy.

Local political observer Chris Hylton believes that three of the seats — St James East Central, where Bartlett will face the PNP’s Noel Donaldson, who lost the St James South constituency against Kellier in the 2007 general election when he contested on the JLP’s ticket; St James West Central, where Opposition Spokesman on Health Marlene Malahoo Forte is facing Ffolkes Abrahams; and St James Central where Clarke is vying against attorney Ashley-Ann Foster — are those to watch.

“Any party which wins those three seats on the night of the election will give us a clear indication which party will form the next government, so these are three critical seats that both parties are banking on,” Hylton argued.

He added that of the three marginal constituencies in the parish, the battle between Clarke and Foster, and the Bartlett and Donaldson contest are expected to be intense.

“One cannot underestimate the marketing skills of Bartlett, and he is very much aware of what transpired in the 2011 general election, which he almost lost. He knows that Mr Donaldson is very competent and is an effective campaigner, and so he will be pulling out all the stops to retain the seat,” Hylton said.

He added that in the St James Central seat, Foster appears to be putting in the work required to retain the seat for the PNP. Still, he said that one cannot write off Clarke, who is a former councillor in the St James Parish Council.

“Mr Clarke is a seasoned campaigner. Unfortunately for him, he did not win in the last general election, so he must have gone back to the drawing board to see where he went wrong, and to look at what he can do better to get out the votes,” said Hylton.

He added that “money will play a vital role in the constituency”, pointing out that the PNP is already spending heavily in the constituency.

Following their nomination on Tuesday, both Clarke and Foster expressed confidence in winning the seat.

“We are very confident this time,” the JLP candidate told journalists.

“We are avoiding the pitfalls from last time… the buck stops with me. I take the blame for 2011. We took things for granted. “We have done a lot of enumeration and transfers and continue to do the necessary work. We are spearfishing, not net fishing,” Clarke said.

For her part, the 26 -year-old Foster, who is contesting her first election, was equally confident, predicting a 500-vote margin win in her favour.

“We have to get on the ground and continue to organise, organise, organise,” she stressed. “My team is very experienced, a super campaign team, seasoned and has won many elections.”

And in the neighbouring St James East Central constituency, Donaldson has vowed to send Bartlett packing.

Addressing scores of cheering supporters in Adelphi Square shortly after nomination, Donaldson said: “The time has come for better representation. The time has come for an end to neglect. The time has come for Bartlett to go.”

But a confident Bartlett later told the

Jamaica Observer West that he expects to win the seat by a majority of 1,500 votes.

“The last time [2011 general election] was a mixture of straight corruption… and the fact that I was the minister of tourism so I was all over the world, but now that work has been done. I am very, very confident,” said the three-term member of parliament.