The Local government election is scheduled for tomorrow (Monday, November 28) and there is widespread speculation as to how this election will go.

Traditionally, this election is held shortly after the general election and, for the most part, the party that wins the national election normally has sufficient momentum to carry them across the finish line first in the local election.

It was surely anticipated that with the People’s National Party (PNP) in apparent disarray after their narrow, unexpected loss in the February 25 election that the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) would have called these elections whilst the PNP was still trying to understand where they were slipping, as they did from a 21-seat majority on February 24th to a 1 seat loss on February 25. The party appeared to be descending into chaos as recriminations flew left and right and scapegoats were searched for to explain the obvious. Conventional wisdom speaks to hitting your opponent when they are at their weakest and most vulnerable, and this the PNP certainly was for months after the general elections.

Early indications were that the coffers of both parties were somewhat dry after the massive spending during the general election. For the JLP government, those considerations are perhaps not sustainable given the level of spend in the formal media, in the last two weeks, associated with this local government election. The PNP has not engaged in any such spend in formal media, asserting instead that they are working on the ground, canvassing support on a one-on-one basis. Perhaps the JLP was cognisant of one view — that the country was not yet ready for another election so soon after the general.

The view that I subscribe to more than any other, however, is that the narrowness of the February 25 victory conditioned a level of caution going into this fresh election. Whatever the scenario, the elections are here and it is useful to look at the historical patterns surrounding these elections from 1947 to the present to see if they provide any insight into the likely outcome on Monday.

The first local government election was held in 1947 and it is very instructive to note that in that election and two others subsequently, independent candidates did extremely well. During that election and the elections of 1951 and 1956, a ‘third party’ did thrive. This success for the independents was somewhat short-lived.

In the 1947 election, not only did independent candidates perform excellently, they nominated more than one candidate in several divisions, including some where neither the JLP nor the PNP entered candidates. In those elections, they won 97 divisions compared to 53 for the PNP and 52 for the JLP. Of course, those were the early, formative years and both the PNP and the JLP were fledgling parties.

By the local government election of 1960, independent candidates made very little impact on the political landscape, winning only three divisions across the island.

A look at the outcome of the other 14 local government elections since 1947 reveal some very interesting patterns. One of these is the significant decline in voter turnout over the period. It is now generally accepted that local government elections will not attract a large number of electors.

One of the reasons now being advanced is that these elections tend to come so soon after the general that the electorate are not really tuned into voting again that quickly. There is also another view that the electorate at large does not really understand what is the mandate of the parish councils and hence are even more disconnected than they are with the general elections, where voter turnout has also been declining over the years,

Indeed, voter turnout for local government elections has not always been low. A closer look at the pattern between 1966 and 1990 indicates that voter turnout averaged 61% over these seven local government elections.

Over the last four elections, the voter turnout average was 37 per cent. The previous eight local government elections recorded an average of 59 per cent turnout. How does this compare with the national elections?

The average turnout over the last four general elections, including 2016 was 55 per cent, compared to 77 per cent for the previous eight. Both speak to substantial decline in voter participation in those respective elections. But the view that there is little interest in local government elections is not borne out by the data, although it is fair to say that the decline has been precipitous, with the lowest turnout in the 2012 election won by the PNP. Then, just 34 per cent turned out to vote.

The debates on the local government elections have come and gone without much fanfare, very much the same way that the debates on the general election would have come and gone had they been held. Two things stand out. One is that it is unlikely that those debates will significantly impact voter intention and secondly, the debaters on both sides did not grasp well the opportunity to articulate what parish councils are mandated to do and to better educate the voting public as a means of achieving a greater level of engagement.

Empirical data collected here and also from a detailed evaluation of the effect of debates on voter intention in the USA elections spanning over 50 years, confirm that there is generally greater negative impact from non-participation than from exposure to the public in this way. Put another way, there is no acceptable body of data that points to shifts in voter intention as a result of debates. Instead, there are generally private debates as to who won and, for the most part, persons take a position that the candidate or party that they support has won the debate.

Despite the fact that the PNP currently controls all the parish councils, the party starts this current election on the back foot, against the background of the election loss on February 25 and the serious discord and glaring divisions within the party consequent to that loss. How the electorate responds to the PNP in this local government election could have far-reaching implications for the party going forward.

The PNP indeed appears to be at a critical juncture. Will this election tomorrow be the tipping point or the turning point?

Don Anderson, CD is the chairman and CEO of Market Research Services Limited, a position he has held since 1975. During this time, he has conducted highly successful market research and political polling in Jamaica and several Caribbean countries. He currently lectures on research methods part time at the University of the West Indies.