IT was always going to be an interesting contest, this the 16th Parish Council Election, officially known as the Local Government Election, since Universal Adult Suffrage, given the extremely close one-seat margin to the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) on February 25 this year.

Traditionally since 1956, many PCEs have been called by both major parties shortly after their General Election victories to take advantage of their political momentum, but none before with so minimal a margin like the last election. And although this PC election lived up to the expectations of most people who predicted a JLP victory and a low voter-turnout, it also produced not only some familiar trends, but also some rather stunning shocks, surprises and setbacks hardly indicative of some its more illustrious predecessors.

It was never going to be an election that the People’s National Party (PNP) was going to win, notwithstanding the enduring optimism of some Comrades. Quite frankly, the 2016 General Election had seen to that. For although the election produced only a one parliamentary seat majority for the JLP, the reality was its revelation that coming from a position of controlling none of the councils, the JLP would have triumphed in eight councils, compared to four for the PNP and 11-11 tie in the parish of Clarendon. Those lined up in the green column were: KSAC: 21-19, St Catherine: 22-19, Portland: 6-3, St Mary: 7-6, St Ann: 9-7, Trelawny: 7-2, St James: 13-4 and St Elizabeth: 8-7, while the orange tally included Westmoreland: 14-0, Manchester: 10-5, Hanover: 4-3 and St Thomas: 6-4, with a very close divisional count showing 116 divisions for the JLP and 112 for the PNP which also won the Portmore Municipality 6-4.

Regarding this phenomenon, there were as many sceptics as there were political pundits who didn’t quite study those results back in February. Well, except for the eventual scores in St Catherine, Clarendon and St Thomas, the 2016 PCE definitely mirrored the outcome of the 2016 General Election, right down to the lower-than-usual voter-turnout. According to the preliminary results (and the earliest final counts), the JLP won nine councils — the KSAC: 21-19, Portland: 7-2, St Mary: 10-3, St Ann: 11-5, Trelawny: 6-3, St James: 14-3, St Elizabeth: 9-6, Clarendon: 13-9 and St Thomas which tied 5-5 and went to the JLP with a popular vote margin of over 1,300. The PNP took Westmoreland: 9-5, Manchester: 9-6, Hanover: 4-3 and St Catherine: 21-20 only after PNP final count victories at Edgewater and Angels, as well as the Portmore Mayoral race: 8-2.

The JLP polled approximately 284,829 votes (52.6 per cent) to the PNP’s 256,245 (47.4 per cent). They captured 130 divisions (57 per cent) and the PNP took 98 divisions (43 per cent) in a national voter-turnout of approximately 31.6 per cent or over 541,000 of the 1,849,012 registered voters on the most recent list on May 31, 2016. My projection two weeks before the election had the JLP winning 10 councils to the PNP’s two and the actual prediction of a 5-5 tie in St Thomas. I was only out in the parishes of St Catherine and Hanover, and my take on the total divisions were JLP 134 and PNP 94.

But contrary to the immediate perception, the 2016 PCE’s estimated turnout of 31.6 per cent is not the lowest ever voter-turnout in the parish councils’ 69-year history. That infamy goes to the second PCE in 1951 which had a 30.7 per cent turnout of voters, just below the second lowest of 31.2 per cent in the following election in 1956. Starting at 38.2 per cent in 1947 (down from 58.7 per cent in the first General Election in 1944), PCE turnout got up to 44.1 per cent in 1960, settled in the 60s in the next three elections (1966, 1969 & 1974) before dropping into the high 50s in 1977 and 1981, then up to 65.5 per cent in1986, back down to 56 per cent in 1990 and since then, the second phase of a plunging trend mostly into the 30s. After this election, the average voter-turnout in PCEs will be about 45 per cent.

However, in spite of the expected outcome and the low voter-turnout, the 2016 PCE produced some very exciting and competitive races, and even established some new records. Indeed, the significant islandwide swing to the JLP led to the fall of at least five prominent and traditional PNP fortresses — namely: Oracabessa (Western St Mary), Moneague (South-East St Ann), Brown’s Town (North-West St Ann), Maroon Town (South St James) and Savanna-la-mar South (Central Westmoreland). Interestingly, except for Moneague, all of the others started their PNP pilgrimage under the representation of JLP Member of the House of Representatives (MHR) in 1947.

The Oracabessa Division which fell to the JLP by 16 votes was only won by the party once before in 1981, the only occasion in which they swept all 13 parish councils. The PNP’s domination of this division goes all the way back to 1947 under MHR Lester L Simmonds when trade unionist Holroyd O Thompson won and held it for 21 years until 1969. West St Mary MP and National Security Minister Hon Robert Montague would be pleasantly satisfied with this conquest, as his dad Asquith Montague was the JLP candidate defeated by Thompson in the 1966 contest when Bobby was a little boy. The PNP baton was passed on to Augustus Neil (1969-1977), Henry Woodham (1977-1981), Donald Sutherland who also held it for 21 years (1986 – 2007) and it remained in the orange column until November 28, 2016.

The Moneague Division which the JLP won by 28 votes, largely due to PNP foul-ups and internal problems, had also gone green only once before when the JLP tornado passed through in 1981. PNP dominance under the late great Dr Ivan Lloyd (MHR) and with Cecil Anderson who held it for 18 years (1947-1966), then with C Bryan who held it for two terms (1966-1974), followed by James B Long (1974-1981), Trevor Lynch (1986-1990), Donald Simpson (1990-2003) and finally Lloyd Garrick who held it for the past 13 years until he was vanquished on November 28.

The Brown’s Town Division which the JLP took by 129 votes has a similar history as a renowned PNP bastion throughout the years, won also only once before by the JLP in the same labour ‘deliverance’ tsunami of 1981. Its first PNP Councillor after Adult Suffrage under MHR Gideon W Gallimore was actually Cleveland A Bertram (father of former St Ann North West MP and noted historian, Arnold Bertram), who held it for a term until 1951. The division then went to Sydney A Clarke who held it for over 22 years until 1974 when Stanford Clarke took over and held it until 1981. It came back to the PNP with Webster Gaynor (1986-1998), then to Merlene Millin (1998-2003), then Ivan Anderson who left the PNP in late 2011 and was succeeded in 2012 by Delroy Redway.

The Maroon Town Division which went to the JLP by 81 votes has also been a consistent PNP stronghold that only fell once before to the JLP in 1981, but differed slightly from the others in that it never started in 1947 with the PNP. Its first councillor under MHR Robert Cecil McFarlane was an Independent, George Fennell, who won it with only 31.7 per cent of the ballots and served for a term. The PNP’s AR Smith took it in 1951 and held it for 15 years until 1966 when Mortimer Reid took over and served for four terms until he was defeated in 1981. It was then held briefly for a term by Clinton McKenzie (1986-1990), before Glendon Harris took charge in 1990 and held it for over 25 years until his waterloo last month, and of which the last four years of his tenure he served as the Mayor of Montego Bay. He is best remembered for his administration’s silly prank in defacing a national symbol when the green was willfully removed from the Jamaican flag.

Like Maroon Town, the Savanna-la-mar (South) Division which the JLP won by 59 votes and like all the others was won only once previously by the JLP in 1981, did not begin in 1947 with the PNP. Its first councillor that year under MHR Clifford C Campbell (later Jamaica’s first native Governor-General) was the JLP’s Edwin Brooks, who lost to the PNP’s VE Meyler in 1951 that started the PNP domination in the division. In 1960 he was succeeded by the very popular and likeable Guy Ottey, one of Savanna-la-mar’s best mayors, who represented it for four terms until 1977. That year it was taken over by the very fiery and impulsive Pearl McKoy who got trampled in both JLP stampedes of 1980 and 1981. When it came back to the PNP in 1986, the next councillor was John Meyler, who passed the baton to Eric Meyler in 1990, then to Delford Morgan in 1998, who was also a Savanna-la-mar Mayor for a term until 2003 when it was won by Milton L Miles who held it until November 2016.

Another bombshell was that the 2016 PCE revealed that a total of eight opposition PNP MPs would have lost their seats by relatively strong margins if it was a general election. These are Dr Fenton Ferguson (Eastern St Thomas) by 389 votes, Dr Lynvale Bloomfield (Eastern Portland) by 572 votes, Dr Winston Green (South East St Mary) by 1,208 votes, Dr Dayton Campbell (North West St Ann) by 741 votes, Victor Wright (North Trelawny) by 781 votes, Derrick Kellier (South St James) by 661 votes, Michael Stewart (South Manchester) by 300 votes and Natalie Neita-Headley (North Central St Catherine) by 379 votes.

Bearing in mind the low turnout of perhaps more PNP voters than JLP voters, and that the PNP hardly campaigned quite as much as the JLP, it could formulate a rationale derived from those results.

In other words, while the speculation could be somewhat hypothetical, are those eight seats any less secure than for example the six JLP members whom the 2012 Parish Council Election showned as potential losers if it was a General Election. I’m referring to James Robertson (Western St Thomas) who would have lost by 850 votes, Ed Bartlett (East Central St James) by 512, Gregory Mair (North East St Catherine) by 160, Ruddy Spencer (South East Clarendon) by 136, Shahine Robinson (North East St. Ann) by 131 and JC Hutchinson (North West St Elizabeth) by 58 — all of whom were re-elected in February 2016 by comfortable margins. The only PNP member among that group was Hugh Buchanan (South West St Elizabeth) who had a deficit of 341 and eventually lost in 2016 by over 2,000 votes to the JLP’s Floyd Green.

Those who would have survived but left barely hanging on by the “skin of their teeth” constituency margins, include: Horace Dalley ( PNP) — North Clarendon on 17, Dwayne Vaz (PNP) — Central Westmoreland on 27, Richard Azan (PNP) — North West Clarendon on 152, Dave Brown (JLP) — East Hanover on 201, Dr Morais Guy (PNP) — Central St Mary on 226, Alando Terrelonge (JLP) — East-Central St Catherine on 230, and Marlene Malahoo-Forte (JLP) — West-Central St James on 274.

On the other hand, there were significant party performances in constituencies held by the JLP’s Daryl Vaz (West Portland), Floyd Green (South West St Elizabeth), Frank Witter (South East St Elizabeth), Leslie Campbell (North East St Catherine), Zavier Mayne (South West St Ann), James Robertson (Western St Thomas), JC Hutchinson (North West St Elizabeth), Ruddy Spencer (South East Clarendon), Everald Warmington (South West St Catherine), Audley Shaw (North East Manchester) whose margin was doubled, Pearnel Charles (North Central Clarendon) whose margin increased by 250 per cent, and the PNP’s Colin Fagan (South East St Catherine) and Fitz Jackson (South St Catherine).

But with the exception of Homer Davis (Cambridge), George Wright (Petersfield), and Marsha Francis (Cedar Valley), the election turned out to be a nightmare for some former parliamentarians and parliamentary candidates who sought to either resuscitate their political careers or sustain their presence in the system. People like the PNP’s Wendell “Bull Bull” Stewart at Duncan’s, Trelawny; Richard Parchment at Malvern, St Elizabeth; Desmond Gilmore at Lime Hall, St Ann; Lloyd Gillings at Albert Town, Trelawny; Wynter McIntosh at Chester Castle, Hanover; and the JLP’s Newton Amos at Linstead, St Catherine; Kerensia Morrison at Angels, St Catherine; and Keith Blake in the Portmore Municipality.

There were mixed fortunes for a few prominent or high profile candidates from both sides of the political divide. The PNP’s Dollis Campbell and Allana Mais (Khajeel’s mom) stumbled predictably at Mona and Norbrook, respectively, while PNP incumbents Kari Douglas and Venisha Phillips scored marginals victories in Trafalgar and Papine divisions. And while returning former JLP St Mary Councillor Michael Belnavis chalked up an impressive victory at Ocho Rios for the green column, party colleagues Fabian Brown failed at Trafalgar, former cop Newton Amos just couldn’t capture Linstead as he had done in February, Charmaine Stephenson (Cecil Charlton’s grand daughter) failed by only 112 votes to embarrass Peter Bunting in Mandeville, and Kadian Myrie (Buju Banton’s daughter) fell just 107 votes short of making Dr Peter Phillips a one-division MP.

Traditional PNP divisions (or areas) lost in the rush, include: Brompton (South West St Elizabeth), for many years the former lair of National Workers Union/PNP icon, JAG Myers; Welcome Hall (South St James), Arthur Brown’s stronghold for 25 years lost by Derrick Kellier’s brother, Martin; Lime Hall (North East St Ann), which has really ceased to be a PNP stronghold since the advent of Shahine Robinson; Porus (South Manchester), Annotto Bay (South East St Mary), Port Maria (Central St Mary), Above Rocks (North Central St Catherine), Friendship (Western Westmoreland) and Fellowship (Eastern Portland) — all mostly held by the PNP over the last 40 years.

Petersfield, Frome and Cornwall Mountain (all in Central Westmoreland) do not really belong in this category, as throughout the years they have had a reasonable share of JLP representation, especially during the existence of the former constituency called North East Westmoreland, 1967-1992.

But I was a little surprised with JLP losses at Riverside (Western Hanover), a JLP stronghold for most of its history; Ginger Ridge (West Central St Catherine), birthplace of Bruce Golding and JLP bastion during the 48-year era of the Goldings and Enid Bennett; Ulster Spring (South Trelawny), mostly JLP since the arrival of Marisa Dalrymple-Philibert; Mount Industry (North East St Catherine), JLP bedrock for most of Franklyn Hamilton’s 30 years as councillor; Westchester (South East St Catherine), largely JLP since its creation in 1998 and Southboro (East Central St Catherine), which was so instrumental to Alando Terrelonge’s success in February 2016.

The 2016 PCE signalled the retirement of former PNP mayors Bertel Moore (Westmoreland), who served as Councillor for the Sheffield and Negril Divisions for a total of nearly 22 years, and Brenda Ramsay (Manchester), Bellefield’s Councillor for over 18 years. It also beckoned the retirement of the KSAC’s Lorna Leslie, undefeated after over 33 years as the JLP Councillor for the Denham Town Division and the longest-serving woman in parish council politics since Universal Adult Suffrage, who surpassed St Ann’s Myrtle Aabuthnott-Gallimore’s record sometime in 2012. Of those still serving, the JLP”s Lee Clarke (Whitehall, North Central St Andrew) is now the longest-serving KSAC Councillor with nearly 33 years of service, and currently ranks eighth in national longevity.

It has been a real pleasure to see the large quantity of women who contested this PC election, an occurrence that seems to be improving in recent times and attracting so many women vs women contests. True, women are still much fewer than men in the system, but former parish council greats such as Sally Porteous, Iris King, Marie Atkins, Enid Bennett, Olga McKenzie, Merlene Daley, Rosemarie Shaw, Minna Wilmot, Minnie Clarke, Lily Mae Burke, Violet Thompson and Daphne Holmes, have been clearly emulated by current women in the councils like Angela Brown-Burke, Tosha Schwapp, Joan Spencer, Venisha Phillips, Doreen Hutchinson, Kari Douglas, Joy Cotterel, Lydia Richards, Beverley Prince, Audrey Smith, Marsha Francis and Kenisha Allen, that feisty little spitfire from Babsy’s stable whom many seniors can perhaps envisage as the spitting image of a young Rose Leon in the making.

I must commend the JLP advertising campaign, which did not start off too well with some rather defective spots on the electronic media featuring excerpts from speeches by the Prime Minister and the Minister of Local Government. But it picked up later and became one of the most effective campaigns I have ever seen launched for a parish council election in both print and electronic media. The ads, simple but with very cogent graphics, and a really great (and original) idea to feature actual parish council candidates from a wide cross-section of the rural parishes, talking about themselves and their ideas. Good stuff.

Conversely, the PNP advertising campaign was uncharacteristically poor, started too late, perhaps due to a lack of funds, the last minute press ads too wordy and looked amateurish, quite unlike effective PNP campaigns of the past, and some of the TV ads looked like “dem a falla back a labour” as someone remarked to me. Such an ineffective effort must have had a negative influence on the party’s performance in the election results.

Although still rocked with an avalanche of internal problems, plus the shameful behaviour of the Opposition Leader in Claremont and her lack of grace and common courtesy in not conceding victory to the JLP, the PNP did manage to influence the exact outcome of the 2016 PCE as projected by the February 25 general election — in winning only four parish councils to the JLP’s eight, and the tie in St Thomas instead of Clarendon.

Manchester and Hanover were always on the cards, but they came out of Westmoreland battered and bruised, and were able to stage an admirable fightback in St Catherine, even though Dr Ferguson’s failure to hold on to the Port Morant Division virtually actuated the tie that handed the council to the JLP with the popular vote.

The people of Jamaica have placed their trust and confidence in the JLP administration to also take charge of affairs at the parish council level for only about the fifth time since 1947. It is a great honour and achievement, but it comes with much challenge and commitment that Prime Minister Andrew Holness and his team, already enhanced with a very positive approval rating and an intensity to succeed, will be tackling with fervor. The hard work and diligence of all councillors so consistently preached and implored by Local Government Minister Desmond McKenzie must come into play to achieve success, since the ball is actually in everyone’s court.

Troy Caine is a political historian and analyst. He may be contacted at: trodencorp@gmail.com