Dear Editor,

I draw reference to both poll results on the Portland Eastern by-election which appeared in the publications of the nation’s two dailies on Sunday, March 10, 2019.

I was not surprised at the conflicting results of both polls. Although polls are based on modules, methodology and interpretations of data collected, such anomalies between these two polls can be expected on this basis.

However, data from a credible research agency that did a poll, independently of both political parties, between March 6 and 7, showed that the People’s National Party (PNP) is in a better position to win the Portland Eastern constituency than the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP).

These findings are based on four solid factors of which I think both polls may have failed to detect. The four factors are the base support of both political parties, the favourability of both candidates, the swing voters/polling divisions of the constituency, and the enthusiasm/excitement of voters across the demographic groups.

The Jamaica Observer‘s bold headline says ‘JLP leads by 10%’, which would mean that the JLP would have wiped out the 15 per cent gap by which Lynvale Bloomfield had won the seat and added a further 10 per cent. This could be somewhat misleading based on the history of by-elections and voting patterns in Portland Eastern.

Data from the Electoral Office of Jamaica show that no political party has ever been able to get a 25 per cent swing in any of the by-elections held since 1944. The closest a political party came to achieving such a feat was in the by-election of 2001 in St Ann North Eastern, when the JLP’s Shahine Robinson got a 15.2 per cent swing.

Before that election the sitting MP had abandoned the seat over a two-year period, the opponent was flawed and not well-liked, while being over-confident. It is far different in Portland Eastern. Crawford is viewed in a more favourable light than Vaz and he has huge political capital. Crawford leads Vaz in likeability and when it comes to enthusiasm the PNP and JLP voters seem matched. Vaz only leads by a slight majority in the 18-24 age group, which is negated by Crawford’s strong showing in the other demographics.

The leadership of both political parties is not a major factor or influence of money in this race; it is about Vaz versus Crawford. So, I believe it is advantage Crawford.

Fernandez Smith

Former JLP councillor

fgeesmith@yahoo.com