It is a mockery for mountain dwellers to ask for fireplace rocks from those who live in the meadow. — Shona proverb, Zimbabwe

“Come gather ’round people

Wherever you roam

And admit that the waters

Around you have grown

And accept it that soon

You’ll be drenched to the bone.

If your time to you

Is worth savin’

Then you better start swimmin’

Or you’ll sink like a stone

For the times they are a-changin.”

T hese evocative lines from balladeer, artist, and actor Bob Dylan, who was awarded the 2016 Nobel Prize for Literature, becoming the first songwriter to win the prestigious award, are especially relevant today. Major social and economic change post-COVID-19 are prominent themes in media and other landscapes. Some argue, however, that the COVID-19 pandemic will not cause one iota of difference to the present social and economic status quo. They say we will go back to the same ole, same ole as soon as we are able to once again hit the streets, watch our favourite teams perform dazzling spectacles in the Indian Premier League, bet on games in the English Premier League, have a drink or two at that favourite watering hole, rekindle especially physical connections with family and friends, or whichever leisure activity we fancy. We will fall back into the myriad activities that characterised daily existence before the savage onset of the rampaging COVID-19.

I disagree.

Change gonna come

Nine of the world’s foremost academicians — Joseph E Stiglitz, Robert J Shiller, Gita Gopinath, Carmen M Reinhart, Adam Posen, Eswar Prasad, Adam Tooze, Laura D’Andrea Tyson, Kishore Mahbubani — have asserted that the pandemic will change the economic and financial order forever. ( www.foreignpolicy.com, April 15, 2020) These are gists/forecasts/descriptions/prescriptions of/for the present economic order and a post-COVID-19 global economy as set out in the mentioned article:

1) Joseph E Stiglitz, professor of economics at Columbia University, winner of the 2001 Nobel Memorial Prize in economics, says: “We need a better balance between globalisation and self-reliance.”

2) Robert J Shiller, professor of economics at Yale University, winner of the 2013 Nobel Memorial Prize in economics, says: “This wartime atmosphere has opened a window for change.”

3) Gita Gopinath, the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, says: “The real risk, however, is that this organic and self-interested shift away from globalisation by people and firms will be compounded by some policymakers who exploit fears over open borders.”

4) Carmen M Reinhart, a professor of international finance at Harvard Kennedy School, says this pandemic is “another nail in the coffin of globalisation”.

5) Adam Posen, the president of Peterson Institute for International Economics, maintains that, “The economy’s pre-existing conditions are made worse by this pandemic.”

6) Eswar Prasad, a professor of trade policy at Cornell University and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, points out that, “The economic and financial carnage wrought by the pandemic could leave deep scars on the world economy. Central banks have stepped up to the challenge by tearing up their own rule books.”

7) Adam Tooze, a history professor and director of the European Institute at Columbia University, states that: “The normal economy is never coming back.”

8) Laura D’Andrea Tyson, a professor at Haas School of Business at University of California, Berkeley, and a former chair of the US President’s Council of Economic Advisers under the Clinton Administration, suggests that: “The pandemic and subsequent recovery will accelerate the ongoing digitalisation and automation of work trends that have eroded middle-skill jobs while increasing high-skill jobs during the last two decades and contributed to the stagnation of median wages and rising income inequality.”

9) Kishore Mahbubani, a distinguished fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Asia Research Institute, notes that, “The COVID-19 pandemic will accelerate a change that had already begun — a move away from US-centric globalisation to a more China-centric globalisation.”

Some have labelled these and similar thinkers as sheltered capitalists, liberal progressives, and voodoo conservatives. There are other epithets/descriptions too, but those cannot be reproduced in a family newspaper.

Incidentally, on the matter of labelling, I was given several rather colourful labels as a consequence of my The Agenda piece in the Jamaica Observer last Sunday.

I am not surprised.

Gladly, the majority of my readers — based on my rough content analysis of e-mail responses — fully grasped the meaning of the column.

President Franklin D Roosevelt (FDR) responded to those who, for reasons best known to them, did not want to understand why his reforms were necessary this way: “A few timid people, who fear progress, will try to give you new and strange names for what we are doing. Sometimes they will call it fascism, sometimes communism, sometimes regimentation, and sometimes socialism. But, in so doing, they are trying to make very complex and theoretical something that is really very simple and very practical.” (FDR, June 28, 1934, Fireside Chat #5)

I agree wholeheartedly.

I am convinced that social and economic regeneration — and not the resurrection of redistributive (the social democratic models) leftist politics, which is the prescription of Dr Peter Phillips and the People’s National Party (PNP) — are absolutely necessary at this time.

Successful models exist. We need to tailor these to our social/cultural uniqueness. Thereafter, we must get on with the job of reforming our economy. I believe time is of the essence.

Debt forgiveness

On the point of needs, I think one of the most urgent needs facing especially the developing economies of the world is that of debt forgiveness. Consider this: “In a pessimistic forecast, the World Bank revealed yesterday that the Latin American and Caribbean region would register a sharp fall of 4.6 per cent this year, except for Guyana, which will grow 51.7 per cent, and the Dominican Republic, which will end with flat growth of zero.

“However, the multilateral financial organisation projects a rebound for 2021 of 2.6 per cent in the region, when the gross domestic product (GDP) of the Dominican Republic will grow 2.5 per cent and four per cent in 2022. The area will experience a sharp recession due to the impact of COVID-19, except for the Dominican Republic and Guyana, he added.” ( Dominican Today, April, 13, 2020)

A study by the African Union that was released in April 2020 noted, among other things: “COVID-19 could cost Africa US$500 billion, damage tourism, and aviation sectors.” It said also, “Up to 20 million jobs in the formal and informal sectors in Africa could be lost because of COVID-19.” ( Africa Renewal: Special Edition on COVID-19, April 2020)

Check this: “In a bad-case scenario, East Asia and the Pacific could see up to 11 million people driven into poverty, with low wage and informal sector workers the most vulnerable, the World Bank warns in a report on the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.” ( The Straits Times, March 31, 2020)

A Bloomberg article entitled ‘Coronavirus could cost the global economy US$2.7 trillion. Here’s how’ (March 6, 2020) noted among other things: “The economic fallout could include recessions in the US, euro area, and Japan, the slowest growth on record in China, and a total of $2.7 trillion in lost output — equivalent to the entire GDP of the UK”

If the overwhelming strength of this evidence does not convince intellectual Pharaohs, maybe they should consider this scenario and the likely consequences: ‘Coronavirus: World risks ‘biblical’ famines due to pandemic’ — UN, UK, Guardian, April 21, 2020. The story said among other things: “The world is at risk of widespread famines ‘of biblical proportions’ “ caused by the coronavirus pandemic, the UN has warned.

“David Beasley, head of the World Food Programme (WFP), said urgent action was needed to avoid a catastrophe.

“A report estimates that the number suffering from hunger could go from 135 million to more than 250 million.

“Those most at risk are in 10 countries affected by conflict, economic crisis and climate change, the WFP says.

“The fourth annual Global Report on Food Crises highlights Yemen, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Afghanistan, Venezuela, Ethiopia, South Sudan, Sudan, Syria, Nigeria, and Haiti.

“In South Sudan, 61 per cent of the population was affected by food crisis last year, the report says.”

Given these grim forecasts, how will poor and developing countries service hundreds of billions of dollars in debt repayment? I think substantial debt forgiveness, especially for the poorest of the poor, is absolutely necessary.

If international lenders adopt the approach of modern-day Shylocks, I believe they will be ‘cutting off their noses to spite their faces’.

On April 7, 2020 the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) published a story entitled ‘Calls for debt relief for world’s poorest nations’. It said, inter alia: “More than 100 global organisations are calling for debt payments of developing countries to be dropped this year.

“These countries include the world’s poorest economies which are struggling with the impacts of the coronavirus.

“Major charities including Oxfam and ActionAid International are asking for the debt relief, which would free up more than [US]$25 billion (£20 billion) this year.

“They have written to world leaders and major central banks calling for a range of debt-relief measures.

“The call is being spearheaded by UK-based charity Jubilee Debt Campaign, and comes a day before a meeting of the G20 group of the world’s largest and fastest-growing economies.”

Rustic folks say, “You cannot make blood out of stone.” This should be obvious to even the most unenlightened.

If the Group of Seven (G7) and other global leaders close their eyes to the realities of the scorched economic and social landscapes that is, and will be left in the wake of COVID-19, they will have only themselves to blame when the people storm the Bastille Saint-Antoine.

International reggae legend Bob Marley told us years ago that: “A hungry mob is an angry mob.” One does not need a degree in economics, political science, or any related discipline to understand that the days when significant numbers of people were willing to sacrifice their physiological needs on the altar of ideology are over and done.

During the Great Depression (1930-45), FDR was enlightened enough to realise that insurrection was upon his doorstep. He applied a remedy which we here in Jamaica should give serious considerations as we create our post-COVID-19 road map. I am optimistic that our leaders will do the right thing and that Jamaica, and countries like her which did put up some meat and grain in the barns in preparation for the arrival of the seven ugly and gaunt cows, will rebound quickly.

Some weeks ago I said among other things in this space: “Today we are importing hundreds of millions of dollars of products that were made right here in Jamaica 60 years ago. This idea that we should put most of our economic eggs in something called a service economy basket, in my humble view, is most unwise, given our status as a developing economy.” ( Jamaica Observer, March 8, 2020)

I am glad that others are now also publicly recognising this reality. It is a pity it took COVID-19 for them to begin to see the light.

Mail alert!

Some of my readers, for numerous reasons, have asked me to mention some of the glimmers of hope which point to a return to ‘normal life’. Here are what I believe are some:

• Spain, which has been in lockdown for five weeks, announced last week that it was ready to ease restrictions. Among others, children would be allowed to venture outdoors to visit supermarkets, banks, pharmacies, and take short walks.

• In the Netherlands some children are going back to school in May.

• Scientists at Oxford University began trialling a vaccine on people last Thursday — a stage which hitherto often took years to reach.

• The present epicentres of the disease, namely USA, Spain, Italy, and France, have registered overall continued declines in the numbers of deaths and new infections.

• South Koreans have started to go back to work as restriction ease.

• Up to last Thursday 725,000 people had recovered from the novel coronavirus infection.

• Here in Jamaica, 28 individuals had recovered from COVID-19, up to last week.

Hope and work are our best choices at this time.

Garfield Higgins is an educator and journalist. Send comments to the Jamaica Observer or higgins160@yahoo.com.