After counting the cost to countries refusing to ease travel restrictions, the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) has warned that the price will be the loss of 197.5 million jobs and US$5.5 trillion globally from the sector, based on new research.

Closer home, the WTTC estimates that more than 30 million jobs will be lost across the Americas, presumably including a good chunk of the 350,000 tourism-related jobs in Jamaica, accompanied by the current loss of US$14 million a day here.

These are figures no serious Government or citizen of any country can ignore.

In the case of Jamaica, we must bear in mind that the overall impact of tourism through its linkages touches 1.2 million of our people, or roughly a third of the population.

To prevent this worst-case scenario, WTTC urged governments around the world to follow its four-point plan for recovery, by starting to ease restrictions now, ahead of the summer.

Arguments about taking a cautionary approach to reopening the economy in general, and tourism in particular, are understandable because of fears of losing the gains we have made against COVID-19 at great sacrifice so far.

However, those who are making the arguments have so far been unable to state when the economy should be reopened. Should it be August, October, December, or even later? How will we determine when is the best time to reopen?

What the WTTC is suggesting is that no one knows the answer and so the world should focus its energy on learning how to co-exist with the coronavirus, or watch the economy implode at a greater cost if barriers to global travel and quarantine measures remain in place.

In its latest economic modelling, which looks at the impact faced by the travel and tourism sector amid local and global travel restrictions as a result of COVID-19, the WTTC said the expected 197.5-million job loss represent an alarming 96 per cent rise from the 100.8 million jobs it previously estimated. One shudders to contemplate the pain and devastation that would result to the world, including Jamaica, from such magnitude of losses.

The good news, however, is that the research shows that if these travel restrictions were removed sooner than later it could save a life-altering 99.3 million jobs.

Best-case scenario involves current measures being lifted from June, as Jamaica is doing, for short-haul and regional travel.

This can be achieved with a four-point plan, the WTTC says.

The council recommends, firstly, immediate removal and replacement of any quarantine measures, with ‘air corridors’ to countries with similar circumstances, as well as removal of travel advisories and bans on non-essential international travel, which prevent insurance protection cover for travellers.

Secondly, adoption of global health and safety protocols to provide assurance to travellers that enhanced health and hygiene measures are in place and that it is safe to travel again.

Thirdly, the implementation of a rapid test and trace strategy to help contain the spread of the virus, while still allowing people to travel responsibly at home and abroad.

And, finally, greater and sustained collaboration between the public and private sectors to ensure a coordinated global approach to the crisis.