SANTA CRUZ, St Elizabeth — Residents of flood-prone New Market and neighbouring upland communities in north-western St Elizabeth and eastern Westmoreland, as well as low-lying New River close to Santa Cruz, are fervently praying and hoping that weather forecasters are wrong.

Jamaica’s Meteorological Office says there is a good chance of heavy, persistent rain associated with unstable weather in the northern Caribbean over the next few days.

But residents of New Market and New River, who have been watching water rise with gathering speed over recent days, following weeks of rain, say that if forecasters are correct, many people could soon be forced from their homes and business places because of flooding.

When the Jamaica Observer visited New Market on Tuesday, the village itself was free of water and there had been bright sunshine and no rain for two days. However, less than half-mile west of the village square rushing water had blocked the main road into eastern Westmoreland.

Residents moving between New Market and Carmel — just over the border in eastern Westmoreland — are being forced to use a narrow, tortuous farm road. Alternative routes are also being used to get to Darliston and points west in Westmoreland.

Residents explained that underground water sources, fuelled by weeks of rain, had merged two ponds — referred to as Two Sister — located either side of the main road.

One motorist told the Observer that on Monday he had driven through the water, but by Tuesday it had risen several feet higher.

“Nobody can drive through that now, not even truck,” he said.

Mid-afternoon Tuesday, locals were seen visiting the Two Sister — which legend claims was named for two sisters who drowned there in the notorious 1979 floods — for sightseeing, some taking photos with cellphones.

Howard Hendriks of the National Works Agency (NWA), who remembers visiting New Market as a high school geography student during the 1979 flood episode — which left the village under water for months — told the Observer his agency would be watching the situation closely.

He recalled that a “few weeks back” in October, the water from Two Sister had also merged, but not high enough to block the road. Hendriks said, then, the water eventually receded.

In the hills north of New Market, resident Jason Harvey guided the Observer team to Hog Hole, a usually dry water course now engulfed with huge volumes of rushing water, which locals say is flowing from underground sources originating high in the Cockpit Country. Harvey described it as “Trelawny water”.

The water from Hog Hole was finding its way through pasture lands and farms on the northern outskirts of New Market. The water crossed the New Market to Montego Bay main road at below ankle height, 200 metres up from New Market.

A sombre Harvey said that history had shown that if there is more heavy rain “in Trelawny” (the Cockpit Country) and points north in coming days, “Hog Hole water” would overwhelm New Market, as it has done in all other flooding episodes, including 1979 and most recently in the Nicole floods of late 2010.

At Bridgette’s bar in New Market, there was a note of optimism among patrons who argued that unless there is “very heavy rain” their village will be spared the worst.

“Is ‘ooman’ rain wi a get so far, yuh ago need ‘man’ rain fi flood wi out,” declared Denvan Hanson, who is old enough to recall the horrors of 1979 when New Market was covered by floodwaters for months.

As a result of that episode, Lewisville — named for the late Member of Parliament Neville Lewis — was built on a hill above New Market, complete with high school, police station, post office, health centre, library, planned town centre with market area, and a neighbouring housing scheme.

But when the water receded, and, as memories of the disaster faded, some people who had relocated to Lewisville went back to New Market, which represents an important junction for travellers to and from St Elizabeth — linking with north-eastern Westmoreland, eastern Hanover, and eventually Montego Bay, St James.

Across the road from Bridgette’s bar, vendor Lavern Reid, who described herself as a “young girl” in 1979, said she wasn’t worried about the latest threat.

“Mi used to flood,” she said with a laugh.

Patrick Robinson said everything would depend on the weather later in the week.

“If there is more heavy rain, then yuh know seh it a guh serious,” he said.

At low-lying New River, situated on the fringes of the Upper Black River Morass, which was entered by the Observer team at close to sunset Tuesday, residents said that although the water had been rising to the edge of the road and to people’s yards, they remained optimistic.

Barring more heavy rain to the north in Trelawny, at the head waters of the Black River, they would be safe, they said.

Less than 24 hours later, New River residents told the Observer by telephone that the water seemed to be rising faster. Residents of one house — which had water up to its front step late Tuesday — had seen water rise by more than a foot, the Observer was told.

By mid-afternoon yesterday, residents said that water from the Black River Morass had invaded the Santa Cruz to New River main road.

“It is becoming a worry,” community leader, Kingsley Clarke, told the Observer.

New River, said to be at below sea level, like upland New Market, has a long history of flooding — the last being the Nicole floods of 2010 — when 30 families had to leave their homes for designated shelters.