Scientists believe Omicron could be less deadly than flu
UK, London – England’s Daily Mail newspaper is reporting that scientists believe the Omicron variant of the novel coronavirus could be less deadly than flu, giving a boost to hopes that the worst of the pandemic is over.
Some experts have always maintained that the coronavirus would eventually morph into a seasonal cold-like virus as the world develops immunity through vaccines and natural infection. But the emergence of the highly-mutated Omicron variant appears to have sped the process up, the Daily Mail reported on its website.
“MailOnline analysis shows COVID killed one in 33 people who tested positive at the peak of the devastating second wave last January, compared to just one in 670 now. But experts believe the figure could be even lower because of Omicron,” the Mail story said.
“The case fatality rate — the proportion of confirmed infections that end in death — for seasonal influenza is 0.1, the equivalent of one in 1,000.”
According to the Daily Mail, one former Government adviser said Friday if the trend continues to drop then “we should be asking whether we are justified in having any measures we would not bring for a bad flu season”. But other experts say coronavirus is much more transmissible than flu, meaning it will inevitably cause more deaths.
The Mail also reported that researchers at Washington University modelling the next stage of the pandemic expect Omicron to kill up to 99 per cent fewer people than Delta, in another hint it could be less deadly than flu.
“No accurate infection-fatality rate (IFR), which is always just a fraction of the case-fertility rate (CFR) because it reflects deaths among everyone who catches the virus, has yet been published for Delta, the Mail story said.
“But UK Government advisers estimated the overall figure stood at around 0.25 per cent before Omicron burst onto the scene, down from highs of around 1.5 per cent before the advent of life-saving vaccines.
“If Omicron is 99 per cent less lethal than Delta, it suggests the current IFR could be as low as 0.0025 per cent, the equivalent of one in 40,000, although experts say this is unlikely. Instead, the Washington modelling estimates the figure actually sits in the region of 0.07 per cent, meaning approximately one in 1,430 people who get infected will succumb to the illness.
