PORT OF SPAIN, Trinidad, (CMC) – The Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago (CBTT) has indicated that the labour market is slowly recovering from the shock of the coronavirus pandemic.

According to the latest economic bulletin released by the bank, the latest official labour market data points to an unemployment rate of 5.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2022, down from 6.5 per cent recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2021.

In addition to that, data from the Ministry of Labour also shows that 839 people were retrenched in the seven months to July 2022 compared to 941 individuals the comparative period a year earlier.

“Following two consecutive years of decline, the number of job advertisements published in the print media during the first eight months of 2022 increased by 16.9 per cent (year-on-year), implying that the demand for labour may have improved,” CBTT said.

Concerning the energy sector, the report noted the energy commodity prices continued to soar due to high demand from the reopening of economies in the first instance, as well as supply disruption caused by the Russia- Ukraine war.

“The Energy Commodity Price Index (ECPI) increased 73.4 per cent (year-on- year) over the period January to July 2022, with all commodities tracked by the Index recording strong growth. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices increased 59.6 per cent over the period to an average of US$101.31 per barrel, while US Henry Hub natural gas prices increased 96.0 per cent to US$6.21 per million British Thermal Units.

CBTT added that the post-pandemic domestic economic recovery is yet to be firmly established.

“Quarterly real GDP data published by the Central Statistical Office (CSO) for the first quarter of 2022 showed a decline of 0.1 per cent (year-on-year). Though activity in the non-energy sector rebounded (2.2 per cent), activity in the energy sector declined by 5.1 per cent. Within the energy sector, production was mixed; while on a year-on-year basis output of natural gas (5.6 per cent), LNG (2.0 per cent), methanol (7.4 per cent) and urea (53.0 per cent) slipped, there was an expansion in the production of crude oil (2.2 per cent) and ammonia (2.5 per cent),” CBTT continued.

The CBTT stated that moving forward, policymakers, globally are still combating high inflation without unduly curtailing economic growth.

“The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its July 2022 World Economic Outlook (WEO) update, reduced its growth outlook for 2022 to 3.2 per cent, 0.4 percentage points lower than its forecast in April 2022. Prospects for a soft landing for economies such as the US appear limited, with financial markets already reflecting recession concerns.”