The umbrella organisations for the Caribbean tourism sector are bullish on the outlook for the region’s growth prospects in 2023, but headwinds on the horizon could upend those expectations.

The Caribbean Hotel and Tourism Association has indicated that based on Forward Keys data presented at the Caribbean Travel Forum last October, it anticipates “a successful rebound and projected growth for Caribbean tourism”.

“We look to renewed hope for the Caribbean to move past recovery and into robust growth,” CHTA President Nicola Madden-Greigg shared in an e-mail to Jamaica Observer.

“While this growth has not been linear and/or equal amongst all destinations it highlights the tremendous resilience and demand for the region…All indicators are that Caribbean tourism is back!” she added.

Referencing a World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) report, the CHTA president pointed out that the Caribbean tourism sector’s performance contributed a 36.6 per cent growth in gross domestic product (GDP) for the region in 2021 over 2020. As such, the Caribbean has become the fastest region to experience rebound in tourism arrivals.

Although inbound tourist arrivals across the globe for September 2022 were 31 per cent lower than 2019, “the Caribbean by itself recorded” a three per cent increase in the third quarter of the calendar year.

“This clearly indicated a region that has moved past recovery into growth,” Madden-Greig stated.

She continued: “It is important to recap the WTTC forecast of potential growth between 2022 and 2032: ‘Travel and tourism’s contribution to the global GDP is estimated to grow at an average annual rate of 5.8 per cent — outpacing the forecast average annual growth rate of 2.7 per cent for the global economy. The Caribbean Travel & Tourism sector will enjoy this growth and is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 5.5 per cent, more than double the region’s overall economy growth of 2.4 per cent to reach US$85.1 billion in 2032 from US$50 billion in 2022. Meanwhile, Caribbean travel and tourism jobs are forecast to grow by an average rate of 3.3 per cent annually, creating more than 916,000 new jobs by 2032.'”

President and CEO of WTTC Julia Simpson, however, cautioned in the report, titled ‘Travel and Tourism in the Caribbean: Prospects for Growth’, that achieving of growth in GDP and jobs will depend heavily on the collaborative efforts of Government and the private sector along with community stakeholders to implement strategies and polices to address, among other things, intra-regional travel and aviation fees and port and transportation infrastructure.

“They also need to focus on enhancing sustainability, recruiting and retaining the workforce, diversifying product offers, and increasing preparedness for future crises. This will improve the attractiveness and competitiveness of the Caribbean as a destination in years to come,” Simpson said in the report.

To this end, Madden-Greig underscored the need for the Caribbean tourism sector to “move forward” in a spirit of collaboration and partnership, pointing to this approach as the main reason for overcoming the economic ill-effects of the novel coronavirus pandemic.

“Now we must work collectively to ensure it not just survives but thrives. This means using the lessons learned over the past two-plus years, seeking innovative solutions through innovation and technology, and ongoing upskilling and reskilling of our workforce,” the CHTA head emphasised.

For the current year, she revealed that the aim of the organisation is to focus on the micro, small, and medium tourism enterprises (MSMTE’s), both through internal initiatives and collaborations with partners such as the OAS. With research, this will result in strengthening the implementation capacity and improving their resilience to not only recover but also grow.

According to the WTTC report, post-pandemic recovery could be strongest in St Vincent and the Grenadines and St Kitts and Nevis, with the organisation projecting growth of 145.3 per cent and 135.1 per cent, respectively.

Like the CHTA, the Caribbean Tourism Organization has forecast that the sector will “equal or exceed” its performance in 2019, noting that last year total arrivals reached between 85 per cent and 90 per cent of that amount.

“Nevertheless, a few destinations will require a longer period to reach pre-pandemic levels. We have seen unprecedented levels of airlift into the region from our source markets and the aforementioned recovery has been very evident in both land-based and cruise tourism. This speaks to the resilience of the sector and the positive perception of the region in our source markets, based on our hospitality, stability, connectivity, and our perennial well-earned status as a region for wellness,” the CTO shared with its members last month.

Acting secretary general of the CTO Neil Walters further noted that while the organisation is still seeing some of the effects of the pandemic on global travel, “here in the Caribbean, we have noted a much more consistent pattern of travel which is a good indicator of a return to normalcy and a path to 2019 levels”.

Similar to his colleague, he cites lessons to learn from challenges occasioned by COVID-19.

“Many of those challenges continue today, compounding the latent effects of the pandemic and evolving into new challenges for the tourism sector and Caribbean economies in general. Thus far, we have been able to ride out the supply chain issues, the political unrest existing in some regions of the world, and the economic unrest which seems to be forever looming in our key source markets,” Walters stated.

Of note, the WTTC report also warns of downside risks to the growth prospects of the Caribbean tourism sector, despite positive projections.

“This includes the negative impacts of the Ukraine and Russia war, increasing inflationary pressures, in turn reducing disposable incomes in important source markets, and rising crude oil prices which can make travel costlier,” it outlined.

Moreover, the report reiterated challenges which the Caribbean stakeholders should address — lack of air connectivity, prohibitive cost of air travel, lack of investment in infrastructure and human capital, and vulnerability to shocks and environmental crises, among others.

Walters concurred, highlighting that one of the CTO’s concerns is the lack of intra-regional connectivity, especially in the Central, Southern, and Eastern Caribbean.

“The effect of this is particularly acute in these subregions, where several of our member countries depended on intra-regional travel in the pre-pandemic era as one of their key source markets,” he elaborated.

Additionally, with plans to keep the Caribbean among the top-five earning Caribbean regions, he said the CTO will focus on three key pillars: people; diverse cultural and natural resources; sufficient and sustainable funding, including foreign direct investment; and market growth and product development.

“To date, the majority of our efforts have been focused on traditional markets, resulting in the significant recovery outlined above. But we do recognise that even within and abounding our traditional source markets there are untapped markets which are ripe for growth, including the non-traditional markets outside of the USA, UK, and Europe,” Walters explained.