The 2023/24 National Football League (NFL) post-season has already produced edge-of-your-seat football, and two more tantalising matchups are in store for the Conference Championships this weekend.

The previous round to get here didn’t let up on the excitement-accelerator, as last weekend, three of the four games were decided by one score, and the closer was an immediate classic that had more than 50 million viewers glued to their televisions.

After resting starters in Week 18 of the regular season and enjoying the bye week that came with earning the number one seed in the American Football Conference (AFC), the Baltimore Ravens looked a little rusty in the first half against the Houston Texans last Saturday, heading into half-time tied at 10 points each.

However, just when it seemed the ghost of play-offs past were coming back to haunt quarterback (QB) Lamar Jackson, they were exorcised in the second half.

The Ravens shut out the Texans in the last 30 minutes and scored 24 unanswered points for a 34-10 win, and a place in their first AFC Championship game since 2012, when they won the Super Bowl over the San Francisco 49ers (34-31). Jackson threw for 152 yards and two touchdowns, and ran for 100 yards and two touchdowns, to take his play-off record to 2-3.

San Francisco, the number one seed in the National Football Conference (NFC), put together three quarters of unattractive football last Saturday night, and was on the verge of booking their exit ticket at the hands of the upstart Green Bay Packers, before QB Brock Purdy put together a 12-play, 69-yard drive, capped off by a Christian McCaffery six-yard touchdown run, to steal a 24-21 win.

San Francisco booked a ticket to their third-consecutive appearance in the NFC championship game, and the fourth in five years. This weekend will be their 19th conference championship appearance — the most in NFL history — and they will be facing the Detroit Lions this Sunday, who, after outlasting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31-23 last Sunday, won two play-off games in a season for the first time since 1957, and are going to a conference championship game for the first time since the 1991 season.

The marquee matchup last weekend was the closer for the Divisional Round, and if ever there was a case of saving the best for last, this was it — the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs didn’t disappoint.

The game didn’t provide the expected shootout between two of the NFL’s renowned gunslingers — Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes — as both teams leaned heavily on the run-game (maybe due to the freezing weather) — Buffalo had 182 rushing yards, its fourth most in a game this season, and Kansas City had 146, its sixth most. It was close throughout as neither team led by more than seven points, and they traded leads five times before the final two minutes.

Mahomes threw two touchdown passes to tight end Travis Kelce for their NFL play-off record 16th quarterback-receiver touchdown combination (one more than Tom Brady to Rob Gronkowski) and, on the back of a Tyler Bass 44-yard, missed field goal in the dying minutes, the defending Super Bowl champions advanced to their sixth-straight AFC championship game, with a hard-fought 27-24 win.

After holding the Chiefs scoreless for the final 14 minutes, a very good Buffalo team has now won the AFC East Division four-straight times without progressing to the championship game.

They have averaged 12 wins over the last four seasons but have lost in the Divisional Round for the third-consecutive season, and this is the third time in the past four years that Kansas City has brought their run to a crashing end.

Allen played well (186 yards and a touchdown) and ran for a team-leading 72 yards (including two touchdowns), increasing his career play-off total to 563 yards, the second most among NFL quarterbacks in league history, and trailing only Steve Young (594). Mahomes and Allen are roughly the same age, and both got their respective starting jobs in 2018 — expect this rivalry to extend for many years to come.

The 2024 AFC Championship Game will see the Ravens hosting the Chiefs early Sunday afternoon and the NFC Championship Game will feature the Lions visiting the 49ers later the same day.

Both Conference Championship match-ups have the number one seed vs the number three seed, but as can be seen in the playoffs, seedings can mean very little on the day, especially with a trip to Super Bowl LVIII on the line.

The Chiefs knocked off one dual-threat QB last week in Mahomes’ first away play-off game and now face another away game against a more potent threat in Jackson. They gave up 72 rushing yards on 12 attempts to Allen and Jackson cut through for 100 in 11 attempts against the Texans (Jackson led all QBs with 821 rushing yards and five touchdowns this season).

Jackson has shown more propensity to stick with the pass this season and it was the first time he didn’t surpass 1,000 rushing yards in a season where he started more than 12 games.

Overall, this Baltimore team is impressive in every phase — number four scoring offence and number one scoring defense, the highest point differential (+203), tied for the NFL lead in turnover differential (+12) and led the league in sacks (60) — however, the key to a Kansas City victory lies in containing this year’s best bet for the league’s Most Valuable Player, at the peak of his powers.

In their first three meetings against Jackson, the Chiefs held him to less than 85 rushing yards in each matchup and one rushing touchdown, for three Kansas City wins. But in the latest matchup (Week 2, 2021), Lamar scampered for 107 yards and two touchdowns, while throwing for 239 yards and a touchdown, in a 36-35 win in Baltimore.

This will be the first AFC Championship Game to be hosted by the Ravens and the first conference championship game to be played in Baltimore since January 1971. Mahomes has displayed his majesty, but his receivers led the league in dropped passes (44) this year, leading to their fifteenth rank in scoring, the first time in Mahomes’ career they’ve ranked lower than sixth.

The home team is favoured by JustBet, but Mahomes is a special breed and should not be taken for granted. Maybe some Mahomes Magic?

The Lions have long been the NFL’s most woeful team, being the first NFL team to go 0-16 (2008) and having very patchy play-off appearances (this being their fifth appearance in the last 27 years). Now, the only thing standing in front of them and a ticket to their first-ever Super Bowl are the 49ers.

The Lions have more play-off victories this season (two) than they have since their last NFL Championship in 1957 (one play-off win from 1958 to 2022), while the 49ers are as close as one can get to NFL-royalty – seven Super Bowl appearances with five titles (one fewer than the New England Patriots and the Pittsburgh Steelers).

Of the four remaining teams in the postseason, the 49ers are the most heavily favoured by JustBet this weekend and their only chink may be the possible absence of all-purpose player Deebo Samuel due to injury, but they have enough remaining firepower to prove the bookmakers right. However, if Detroit were to make it to Super Bowl LVIII, that would be the perfect story to cap a very extraordinary season.

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Super Bowl LVIII Champion

Team Odds

San Francisco 49ers 2.44

Baltimore Ravens 2.85

Kansas City Chiefs 4.80

Detroit Lions 8.80

*Note: Odds are subject to change