After just over six months of gruelling competition, the 2023/24 National Football League (NFL) season is down to the final game, Super Bowl LVIII. The contenders, the San Francisco 49ers and the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs, took very different paths to get here, but it cannot be denied that they are both deserving of their spots.

The Chiefs had what can only be described as a roller coaster year, the foremost chink in their armour being dropped passes (leading the league with 44), finishing the regular season 11-6, but won two play-off games on the road, including a solid and effective American Football Conference (AFC) Championship two weekends ago against the Baltimore Ravens, winning 20-17.

The 49ers had a very solid season in which they dominated opponents, except when the all-purpose talent of Deebo Samuels was absent and they went on a three-game skid, finishing the regular season 13-4. They faced a Cinderella team in the National Football Conference (NFC) Championship, the Detroit Lions, on January 28 and had to erase a 17-point, half-time deficit to earn their spot in the big dance, outlasting their opponent 34-31.

As soon as the contenders were decided, the 49ers emerged as JustBet favourites to win the Lombardi Trophy, and that hasn’t changed heading into this weekend. This continues San Francisco’s streak as favourites — they have been favoured in every game they played this season — and makes them the first team to be favoured in every game since the 2017 New England Patriots, who famously obliterated a 3-28 deficit in the Super Bowl that year to crush the Atlanta Falcons 34-28.

With the talent present in the San Francisco locker room and the offensive struggles of Kansas City this year, it cannot be denied that the 49ers are deserving of the favoured status; however, the Chiefs have been battle-tested and boast the better defence, quarterback, and coach on their sideline. The 49ers played both play-off games on their home turf and needed all their talent (and a bit of luck) to dig themselves out of holes on both occasions, while the Chiefs were on the road for the last two of their three play-off games and looked more comfortable, due chiefly to their defence.

Additionally, the neutral site for the Super Bowl this Sunday (Allegiant Stadium) is a surface that Kansas City has become very familiar with over the past few seasons, in which quarterback (QB) Patrick Mahomes is 4-0, with 10 touchdowns, and just one interception.

That said, the keys to championship victory will hinge on which defence shows up early and often, and the adjustments that can be made on the fly to counter what the opponent brings. The Super Bowl contenders rank second (Chiefs) and eighth (49ers) in total defence, and second (Chiefs) and third (49ers) in scoring defense, so, on any given Sunday, one or the other could carry their team if needs be.

The only real defensive disparity is in the run-game, where the 49ers are third in the league – allowed 89.7 rushing yards per game – and the Chiefs share the seventeenth slot with the Los Angeles Chargers, with 113.2 yards allowed. And it doesn’t help that San Francisco’s Christian McCaffrey led the league in rushing, 1,459 yards.

In-game adjustments should be the other major difference-maker. Andy Reid, Kansas City’s head coach, has proved his prowess in this regard, making real-time adjustments in the flow of the game, while on the opposing sideline, Kyle Shanahan has displayed his ability to adjust only during the half-time break – against the Green Bay Packers and the Lions, that wait could have been afforded, against the Chiefs, he may not have that luxury. And the fact that Shanahan was the offensive coordinator for the Falcons in the notorious 2017 collapse against the Patriots and was San Francisco’s head coach for the 2020 Super Bowl comeback by the Chiefs, there is a huge cloud over his head entering this contest.

Speaking of which, one of the main storylines for the past two weeks has been the rematch of these teams after Super Bowl LIV (2020), in which Mahomes got the better of Jimmy Garoppolo, 31-20, thanks to a 21-point fourth quarter from Kansas City (scoring three touchdowns in the final 6:13). However, this is a very different game than the one played 48 months ago when COVID-19 was a few weeks away from shutting everything down. Brock Purdy is now San Francisco’s QB, the 49ers have a completely different offensive line, and there is an individual named McCaffrey who is simply a beast.

Some things, however, remain the same as the Chiefs are named the home team for this Super Bowl. As was the case in 2020, the Chiefs will wear their red home uniform while the 49ers will sport their traditional white away gear. Kansas City is 2-1 when sporting the home uniform, with wins in Super Bowl IV vs the Minnesota Vikings and Super Bowl LIV against the 49ers, while the loss came in Super Bowl LV against the Tom Brady-led Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Incidentally, the road white uniforms have been very successful in Super Bowl history, winning 37 of the 57 games for a 64.9 winning percentage, and more recently, 16 of the past 19 champions have worn white in the Super Bowl.

On a lighter side, while JustBet offers over 200 bet types on the Super Bowl (with attractive odds) ranging from the winner of the game to whether or not Travis Kelce will propose to Taylor Swift and the first song Usher will perform in the half-time show, a bettor in Nevada reportedly wagered US$100 on the Chiefs to score exactly two points during Super Bowl LVIII at odds of 10,000. If it hits, the winner walks away with a whopping US$1,000,000.00.

The possibility of this happening is extremely far-fetched. And while the Chiefs may not currently be the scoring juggernaut they were two season ago, the idea of limiting them to only a safety (the only way to score two points) is bordering on sacrilege. A Mahomes-led Chiefs team has only scored three or fewer points once in a game – Week 7 in 2021, a 27-3 loss to the Tennessee Titans – and no team has ever scored fewer than three points in a Super Bowl (the Miami Dolphins 1972 and Los Angeles Rams in 2019 finished with exactly three points).

Come what may, Sunday’s event is expected to be a blast – strap in, hold on, and enjoy the ride. Are you ready for some football?

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Super Bowl LVIII

Champion

Team Odds

San Francisco 49ers 1.77

Kansas City Chiefs 2.00