Political pundits who are adept at reading tea leaves must have perked up their ears when they heard People’s National Party (PNP) spokesman on finance Julian Robinson predicting that there will be a general election this year.

One of the party’s most respected and successful Members of Parliament, Robinson, who is known to be cautious and contained in his utterances, dropped the bombshell at the recently held People’s National Party (PNP) Women’s Conference at St Hilda’s High School in St Ann.

Said he, “In two weeks, on September 4, the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) will start its fifth year in Government. In my own analysis, we will have an election this year. I will explain why I believe so. There are eight Labourites under investigation for illicit enrichment, oonuh know what that mean? We have never in the history of this country, or in any democracy anywhere in the world, you could have a prime minister going three years and him integrity report cyaa clear. Never! Parliament deh pon a break now, wi a go back inna September. Mi expect one or two a dem report deh fi come, and when dem come, bangarang a go come to, so we need to be ready.”

Well, if Robinson’s words should come to pass, will “Brogad”, donned in his Clarkes, be singing most ruefully: “When push comes to shove, everybody’s gonna put the blame on me”? Anecdotal evidence gleaned from the streets indicates that the JLP Leader Andrew Holness is having a ‘warm time’ with John and Jane Public with respect to the perception that he is not coming clean on the persistent rumours swirling around his impasse with the Integrity Commission and other pain points. Indeed, it can be gleaned from recent polls that his popularity and favourability ratings have waned somewhat and his party is slightly ahead of him.

In this vein, speculation abounds that forces within the JLP may well be in search of someone to replace him should his fortunes continue to plunge, especially against the background of an impending general election.

With this in mind, Robinson’s prediction may well turn out to be a frivolous case of wishful thinking, because no party or its leader would do so in an unfavourable climate. Unless, of course, things really start to fall apart and the centre cannot hold. Politics, after all, is the art of the possible. Then again, given the ruling party’s overwhelming majority in the Lower House, a motion for a no confidence vote would prove to be an exercise in futility, leaving the PNP with the only remaining option, the court of public opinion. Unless, of course, a coup was in the offing which would force the prime minister’s hand to go to the people for a fresh mandate.

In the meantime, the country is going through a relatively turbulent time in the wake of the trials and tribulations caused by Hurricane Beryl, further exacerbated by horrendous utility bills; the startling occurrence of mass shootings; pothole-riddled roads; high cost of living triggered by inflation; constant depreciation of the Jamaican dollar; and people finding it increasingly difficult to make ends meet while some political representatives behave like fat cats sniffing their noses at an angry populace, underemployment, an underperforming education system, and growing distrust of their leadership.

Despite the above, the Holness Administration does have much to brag about, including a declining crime rate, a booming tourism industry, more people accessing piped water, increased housing stock, and we could go on. In the same breath, Holness, political strategist that he is, must not be taken for granted, and the PNP would be foolish to start counting their chickens before they hatch.

One good thing the PNP has going for it is the fact that so far its president, Mark Golding, appears to be squeaky clean in light of the mounting charges of corruption against the ruling JLP. Perhaps the Comrades’ greatest liability at the moment is that they are yet to present to this battle-weary nation a detailed plan should they be given the opportunity to form the next Government. On Sunday, September 15, 2024, when the Golding-led party holds what is likely to be the last public session of its annual conference before the next general election, such an opportunity will present itself so that the people of Jamaica can make a clear choice based on policies, not hype.

From all indications, the next general election will be a close one, as the PNP has been able to recapture the support of some of the constituencies, especially in western Jamaica, that it had lost in 2020 and is making inroads in others that were relatively safe JLP seats. But while the PNP has the edge, egged on by a great deal of disgruntlement in certain sections of the JLP camp as well as the wider society, Holness may be tempted to “run wid it”, as the party does have tremendous fiscal space which will enable it to assuage a hungry and angry electorate.

So even as the nation waits with bated breath for the “bangarang” that Robinson has predicted in Gordon House, the buck will stop at Holness’s desk. To call it or not to call it, that is the question?

Lloyd B Smith has been involved full-time in Jamaican media for the past 49 years. He has also served as a Member of Parliament and Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives. He hails from western Jamaica where he is popularly known as the Governor. Send comments to the Jamaica Observer or lbsmith4@gmail.com.