ASTANA, Kazakhstan (AFP) — The Kremlin on Thursday cautioned against “hypotheses” over the crash of an Azerbaijani plane heading for Russia, killing 38 people, which Azerbaijan officials reportedly believe was caused by a Russian surface-to-air missile.

The Azerbaijan Airlines jet crashed near the Kazakh city of Aktau, an oil and gas hub on Wednesday after going off course for undetermined reasons.

Thirty-eight of the 67 people on board died.

The Embraer 190 aircraft was supposed to fly north-west from the Azerbaijani capital Baku to the city of Grozny in Chechnya, southern Russia, but instead diverted far off course across the Caspian Sea.

An investigation is underway, but some aviation and military experts said the plane may have been accidentally shot by Russian air defence systems because it was flying in an area where Ukrainian drone activity had been reported.

A former expert at France’s BEA air accident investigation agency said there appeared to be “a lot of shrapnel” damage on the wreckage.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, he said the damage was “reminiscent” of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17, which was downed with a surface-to-air missile by Russia-backed rebels over eastern Ukraine in 2014.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters, “It would be wrong to make any hypotheses before the investigation’s conclusions”.

But several media outlets reported Thursday that Azerbaijani authorities believe the crash was caused by a Russian missile.

Euronews cited Azerbaijani Government sources as saying that “shrapnel hit the passengers and cabin crew as it exploded next to the aircraft mid-flight”.

Euronews also cited its sources saying the damaged plane “was not allowed to land at any Russian airports despite the pilots’ requests for an emergency landing”.

They said the plane was instead ordered to fly across the Caspian Sea to Aktau — far off its original route.

A US official, speaking on condition of anonymity, also said early indications suggested a Russian anti-aircraft system struck the plane.

‘Why?’

The New York Times also reported that “two Azerbaijanis briefed on a government inquiry said that Azerbaijani officials now believe that a Russian Pantsir-S defence system damaged the plane”.

Azerbaijan Airlines initially said the plane flew through a flock of birds, before withdrawing the statement.

Kazakh officials said 38 people had been killed and there were 29 survivors, including three children.

Jalil Aliyev, the father of flight attendant Hokume Aliyeva, told AFP that this was supposed to have been her last flight before starting a job as a lawyer for the airline.

“Why did her young life have to end so tragically?” the man said in a trembling voice before hanging up the phone.

Eleven of the injured are in intensive care, the Kazakh health ministry said.

Day of mourning

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev declared Thursday a day of mourning and cancelled a planned visit to Russia for an informal summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), a grouping of former Soviet nations.

“I extend my condolences to the families of those who lost their lives in the crash… and wish a speedy recovery to the injured,” Aliyev said in a social media post Wednesday.

The Flight Radar website showed the plane deviating from its normal route, crossing the Caspian Sea and then circling over the area where it eventually crashed near Aktau, an oil and gas hub on the eastern shore of the sea.

Kazakhstan said the plane was carrying 37 Azerbaijani passengers, six Kazakhs, three Kyrgyz and 16 Russians.

Bloodied survivors

A Kazakh woman told the local branch of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) she was near where the plane crashed and rushed to the site to help survivors.

“They were covered in blood. They were crying. They were calling for help,” said the woman, who gave her name as Elmira.

She said they saved some teenagers.

“I’ll never forget their look, full of pain and despair,” said Elmira. “A girl pleaded: ‘Save my mother, my mother is back there’.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin held a phone conversation with Aliyev and “expressed his condolences in connection with the crash”, Peskov told a news conference.