JAMAICA’S economy shrank more than initially thought during the July to September quarter of 2024, according to new data released on Tuesday.

The Statistical Institute of Jamaica (Statin), in its final estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) released Tuesday afternoon, showed a 3.5 per cent contraction in the economy. That was down sharply from the 2.8 per cent decline that was previously reported.

The third quarter marks the first negative outturn for GDP in Jamaica since the economy contracted by 6.6 per cent in the January to March quarter of 2021 to cap a recession triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic with five-straight quarters of contraction.

The economy has recovered since, expanding for 13 straight quarters. Still, the growth rate was declining for each of the last five quarters before the decline was recorded. Adjusted for inflation, output in the third quarter of 2024 was lower than it was in the same quarter of 2019, before the pandemic induced fallout.

“The passage of Hurricane Beryl in July 2024 adversely impacted the performance of the economy. The Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing and the Mining & Quarrying industries were particularly affected. Heavy rains and wind damaged mature crops, hindered harvesting, delayed planting, and caused significant damage to one of the major alumina-producing plants,” Statin said in its release accounting for the reasons behind the fallout.

It added that significant damage to the Jamaica Public Service Company (JPS) infrastructure caused delays in power restoration across several parishes, resulting in reduced electricity and water consumption which adversely affected the performance of both the Electricity and Water Supply and Other Services industries. Tourism, declined 6.1 per cent in the quarter.

The GDP report serves as a backward-looking overview of economic activity, capturing the July-through-September period. Still, the metric is an important indicator of the state of the Jamaican economy, especially as predictions of a recession mount. The expectation is that the contraction continued into the October to December quarter and could extend into the January to March 2025 quarter.