The Jamaican economy is headed for a technical recession, according to Opposition Spokesman on Citizen Security and Productivity, Senator Peter Bunting.

Bunting made the prediction last Friday as he made his contribution to the 2024/25 State of the Nation Debate in the Senate.

He pointed to the fact that the economy declined 3.5 per cent in the September quarter of 2024 with the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) predicting a further contraction in the December quarter.

Pointing out that the economy is “projected to shrink for the overall 2024 calendar year”, Bunting said “when these projections are confirmed in a couple weeks, the economy will be in a technical recession, that is two consecutive quarters of negative growth”.

The Opposition spokesman reminded that early in 2024, the World Bank projected that Jamaica’s economy would grow at only half the rate of the rest of the Caribbean, excluding Guyana, over the next two years. He said that forecast was before Hurricane Beryl that hit the island on July 3 last year, costing billions in damage to crops and infrastructure.

According to Bunting, “since the initial Covid recovery, the economy slowed for the following eight or nine quarters, stalled in the quarter ending June 2024, and declined by 3.5 per cent in the September quarter”.

He highlighted that for the September 2024 quarter – agriculture, forestry & fishing were down 12.5 per cent, mining & quarrying down 17.4 per cent, and manufacturing down four per cent. He cited that the construction sector has recorded four consecutive quarters of decline including a 3.3 per cent decline in the September quarter.

“Sales of construction inputs have declined and National Housing Trust starts have also declined,” Bunting said while also noting that the hotel and restaurant sector declined 6.2 per cent as a result of a falloff in stopover arrivals at the same time net room yields are down.