Pretty soon the people of Jamaica will be making that all-important decision as to who should be their head of Government for the next five years. Today being Valentine’s Day conjures up the tantalising prospect as to who will successfully woo the nation to the point of it saying “I do” at the altar on election day when the potent question is asked.

The two suitors are the Jamaica Labour Party’s (JLP) Andrew Michael Holness, otherwise known as Brogad, and the People’s National Party’s (PNP) Mark Jefferson Golding, otherwise called Markie G. In Jamaica’s politics, it is safe to say that there is not that much difference between the JLP and the PNP when all is said and done, despite many views to the contrary.

Indeed, the similarities became more evident after the dust had settled on the ideological question as to who embraces capitalism or socialism. And this became somewhat of a non-issue after Michael Manley and the PNP returned to power in the 1990s and made the switch from Kariba to business suits.

The fear of Jamaica becoming a communist State had sufficiently dissipated, which left Edward Seaga and the JLP without that major political weapon to pierce the PNP’s armour. And in the aftermath the harsh truth was the JLP’s Seaga was not the most likeable person to lead the country, notwithstanding his many admirable qualities. Of course, the PNP skilfully went to work in reinforcing that sentiment among the Jamaican populace, so much so that the word “demonise” came into play.

Since then, from all indications, Jamaicans have tended to vote on the basis of likeability with respect to the party leader and not so much on policies or ideology. Talk to any credible pollster and it will be revealed that likeability plays a critical role in the electorate’s mind when choosing who should be their prime minister.

Michael Manley (Joshua) was greatly loved; Hugh Lawson Shearer not so much; while Percival James Patterson, though not charismatic, endeared himself especially to the working class who saw him as the “Great Black Hope”; and then there was Portia Lucretia Simpson Miller (Mama P), who captured the imagination of thousands of Jamaicans as someone who cared and was “one of them”. In all of this, likeability played a critical role when it came to who the people wanted as their maximum leader.

The advent of Bruce Golding somewhat changed the dynamics, as he was seen as more of the consummate bureaucrat obsessed with ideas rather than a personality-driven megalomaniac. After his somewhat brief sojourn at the wicket for the JLP, having become the scarified lamb in the wake of the infamous Christopher “Dudus” Coke affair, he it was who helped to catapult Andrew Michael Holness, then a political neophyte, into the limelight — and the rest, as they say, is history.

At the outset, Holness came across as bland and nerdish, a young political geek who was bright but lacking in charisma. Over time, however, with skilful handling by his marketing team, there emerged Brogad, donned in iconic Clark’s shoes and mesmerising the electorate with a new-found image that would find appeal among the young and upper St Andrew power brokers. Ultimately, a divided and directionless PNP was taken advantage of and the chicken came home to roost when the JLP won by a whisker in 2016 to be followed by that crushing landslide victory of 49 seats to the PNP’s 14 in 2020.

While wallowing in the throes of defeat, the PNP entered a period of great fractiousness, which led to the emergence of two warring factions — the One PNP, led by Dr Peter Phillips, whose competence and integrity were not sufficient to make the people overlook the fact that he lacked sufficient likeability, and the Risers, led by an unlikely newcomer to the leadership circle Mark Jefferson Golding with his peripatetic sidekick Peter Bunting. After a bruising leadership race, Markie G defied the odds and defeated former Miss World and PNP Member of Parliament Lisa Hanna.

But the road to solidifying his leadership of Norman Manley’s party was not a walk in the park. Many disgruntled Comrades bemoaned the fact that the party was being led by a “white man” with very little political experience and track record in public service apart from his impressive stint as minister of justice in the previous Simpson Miller Administration. The JLP, smelling blood, moved in early for the kill, questioning his ethnic origins and alleged dual citizenship, dubbing him Markie British.

But Golding set out to prove himself worthy of the post and in time his ratings, that were wretchedly low when compared to those of Holness, began to rise, and today both the PNP and himself, according to the last Don Anderson poll, are outpacing Holness and the JLP. This perception was further solidified based on the local government election results, which saw the PNP regaining control of several municipal corporations as well as getting the popular vote. Undoubtedly, Golding deserves kudos for the magnificent job he has done to turn around the fortunes of the PNP in addition to fully establishing himself as a force to be reckoned with on the political hustings.

And so the race is on. But even as the race heats up, the endearing personalities of these two gentlemen have to compete in a very hostile environment in which social media is operating at full blast, denigrating them one the one hand but giving them matinee idol status on the other.

However, from anecdotal evidence it is safe to conclude that Markie G at this time is somewhat ahead of his archrival Brogad, who has suffered a few dents in his armour caused mainly by the perception that he is arrogant and has a penchant for authoritarianism, in addition to the spectre of corruption allegations that has permeated the society at large. Needless to say, it is well known that perception in politics can be far more deleterious than the reality itself when it comes to a politician’s image.

To Golding’s credit, so far, apart from the racist slurs being hurled at him, he has no well-established baggage and is not being haunted by any major scandal. This may augur well for him, but the indomitable spirit of Holness is not to be taken for granted or downplayed. Brogad wants to equal PJ Patterson’s record of achieving a third term, so we can expect a bonanza of goodies when he does his budget presentation later this year.

Will the achievements of the JLP (and they are many, notwithstanding the Government’s trickle-down approach which has resulted in those at the bottom of the socio-economic ladder not experiencing any of the highly touted prosperity gravy train) as well as what is left of his likeability be sufficient to bring him and his party first past the post?

Both men are knocking at the door hoping to get the hand of the buxom maiden called Jamaica. Who will be the lucky Valentine, bearing in mind, as William Shakespeare has said, that, “The course of true love never did run smooth.”

Lloyd B Smith has been involved in Jamaican media for the past 49 years. He has served as a Member of Parliament and Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives. He hails from western Jamaica where he is affectionately known as the Governor. Send comments to the Jamaica Observer or lbsmith4@gmail.com.