BRIDGETOWN, Barbados (CMC) – The Barbados-based Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) says an expected return to ENSO neutral conditions in the Pacific while unusually warm Tropical North Atlantic temperatures persist implies that the Caribbean region is set to transition into an intense heat season with heat waves occurring as early as April.

ENSO, or El Niño-Southern Oscillation, is a climate pattern involving changes in ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific.

In the latest publication of the Caribbean Climate Outlook Newsletter, for the period March to May this year, CariCOF said March is characterised by high evaporation rates and an annual peak in the frequency of short dry spells, as well as further buildup of any ongoing drought and with increasing wildfire potential.

“By contrast, from April to May, rainfall intensity and shower frequency are likely to sharply rise, resulting in a high to extremely high potential for flooding, flash floods, cascading hazards and associated impacts in the Caribbean,” CariCOF said episodes of Saharan dust intrusion – and lower air quality – will likely increase in frequency.

CariCOF said that the potential for flooding, flash floods and cascading impacts arising from intense rainfall events increases from limited or moderate in March, to high or extremely high in April and May.

It said water recharge rates in surface reservoirs and rivers will likely accelerate after March, and “accelerated rise in wet day frequency into May to increasingly disrupt outdoor tourism activities, make conditions conducive to moisture-related pests, but dampen wildfire potential”.

CariCOF said that as of February 1, this year, moderate or worse, short-term drought has developed in Antigua, the northern and central Bahamas, southwest French, Guiana, central portions of the coast of Guyana, and St Croix.

It said that long-term drought is evolving in southwest Belize, northernmost Dominican Republic, southwest French Guiana, southwest Jamaica, St Croix, and northwest Trinidad.

CariCOF said that the climate outlook for the period June to August 2025, which marks the summer portion of the Caribbean wet season and heat season, night-time temperatures will likely be higher than usual in most areas.

“In addition, daytime maximum temperatures will likely be as high as usual or higher, with the exception of the area from Haiti eastwards to the Leeward Islands. Episodes of hazardous heat could appear in April and May, with increased risk in areas that are wind-sheltered and/or in drought.”

CariCOF said that the tropical North Atlantic Ocean is forecast to remain unseasonably warm, albeit not at record levels as experienced in 2023 and 2024.

It said unusually high air temperatures will most likely prevail in many locations and the occurrence of significant heat stress is expected to evolve.

“The risk of severe weather impacts, including flooding, flash floods, and cascading impacts is expected to be even higher than usual, amounting to unusually copious wet season rainfall. “Warmer than usual ocean temperatures around and east of the Caribbean typically drive an active hurricane season. However, severe weather activity may be more erratic if Saharan dust intrusions into this region are very frequent,” CariCOF added.