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The flawed handicapping system in Jamaican horse racing
Atomica (Dane Dawkins) carried 55.0kgs (121lb) in the Seeking My Dream Trophy on Saturday, May 17, 2025. (Photo: Naphtali Junior)
Horse Racing, Sports
BY WES MARTIN  
May 23, 2025

The flawed handicapping system in Jamaican horse racing

THE Seeking My Dream Trophy condition event over seven and a half furlongs attracted a field of 10. This included imported Commandant (USA), Desert Of Malibu (USA), Tiz Tok (USA) and Is That A Fact (USA). The local breeders, in terms of class, were represented by Atomica and Run Julie Run. The race, the ninth and final last Saturday, was run following heavy showers, rendering the track sloppy officially.

These are six of the highest-rated thoroughbreds at the moment, and allotment in the conditions for appending the weights produced several anomalies, most glaring of which was Desert Of Malibu and Atomica, six- and five-year-old mares, respectively, at 121lbs each and four-year-old Run Julie Run at the same weight. Is That A Fact at 125lbs, whose last victory was in the None Such last September, was the most aggrieved.

The comfortable, two-and-half-length victory by 8-5 bet favourite Commandant, with 126lbs, confirmed that top weight does not necessarily equalise form/chances and can be advantageous in a race with pre-determined conditions of weight allotment. The punters understand the importance of handicapping. In fact, most punters refer to the racing programmes as “weights” and know instantly which horse is best off, and this creates odd-on favourites in more than 50 per cent of the Caymanas races.

In 1992 the agreement between the Jamaica Racing Commission Board and Caymanas Track Limited Rule#33 was amended to cede handicapping, a regulatory function, to a handicapping committee engaged by the promoting company’s racing office. This gave the employees the responsibility to append weights whilst reporting to a board of directors constituting mainly owners and trainers. No evidence of conflicts of interest emerged but there were too many allotments that defied rational explanation.

As I have positing for the 33 years of the flawed claiming and condition system, the weight allotment is clearly the most important factor influencing wagering. Anything other than genuine handicapping produces huge numbers of odds-on favourites such as 1,095 in the 2,299 races run in the first three years of the SVREL operation as promoters.

This has not changed. And by the way, the 755 races last year — which was 95 less than 2022 — had 389 odds-on favourites. Claiming and handicapping are not incompatible, which, having been denied by local operatives, now has been admitted by the US Jockey Club. In that, lack of adequate field sizes can be improved with a move to classification/handicapping.

As a marketer there was an intensive course I did in the United States with the subject: Why Businesses Fail. There was only one conclusion: “The goods or services offered failed the business, meaning that, for whatever reasons, the market did not buy in.

Based on my professional knowledge, it was easy to predict that a claiming system racing product established on a false premise was superior to one that delivered 300 per cent growth in three decades. Furthermore, investing in trading of racehorses could be a viable economic activity. Over the years there were many financially capable persons who learnt a terribly expensive lesson when their expectation failed to materialise.

Truth be told, the responsibility for the improvement of the racing product does not lie with promoting company SVREL, it is with the Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders Association and the United Racehorse Trainers Association of Jamaica. These operatives have yet to take on board the data-based analyses presented free of charge over the last 10 years in this column. In spite of the efforts of eight-year-old SVREL, growth in the local racing industry remains in negative territory.

Run Julie Run (Reyan Lewis) carried 55.0kgs (121lb) in the Seeking My Dream Trophy on Saturday, May 17, 2025.Naphtali Junior

Is That A Fact (Robert Halledeen) carried 56.5kgs (125lb) in the Seeking My Dream Trophy on Saturday, May 17, 2025.Naphtali Junior

Desert of Malibu (Omar Wallker) carried 55.0kgs (121lb) in the Seeking My Dream Trophy on Saturday, May 17, 2025.Naphtali Junior

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