JAMAICA’S economy is expected to register continued growth when the curtain closes on the current April to June quarter, owing to stronger output across a number of key industries.

The projection by the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) is for growth to take place within the range of 0.5 per cent–1.5 per cent, supported by increased outturns from mostly the agriculture, tourism and construction industries.

The agriculture sector,
after suffering significant setbacks from Hurricane Beryl and Tropical Storm Rafael in late 2024, is now showing signs of recovery. PIOJ Director General Dr Wayne Henry indicated that growth in this critical industry is likely to continue, supported by stronger domestic crop yields and a lessened drag on the export crop component, particularly as longer-term crops start to bear fruit.

In the tourism sector, a surge in stopover arrivals — fuelled by events such as Spring Break, the Easter holidays and Jamaica Carnival — is further expected to contribute significantly to overall growth. Additionally, increased construction activity, spurred by the roll-out of major infrastructure projects at the start of the new fiscal year, is also expected to play a key role. These include both residential and non-residential developments as well as the Government’s $45-billion Shared Prosperity Through Accelerated Improvement to Our Road Network (SPARK) programme which has been generating hundreds of new jobs across the island.

“Growth will also be supported by increased domestic demand due to relatively high levels of employment and increased consumer confidence,” Henry said during a quarterly press briefing held on Wednesday.

Pointing to preliminary data which show a 5.3 per cent increase in airport arrivals for April, the director general said this largely stemmed from the country’s hosting of a number of major entertainment activities which attracted large international patronage. For Carnival, this event alone brought a record surge in foreign arrivals and high economic impact which was said to be at least 10 per cent more than that seen for the previous year. In 2024, the usually well-attended event was estimated to have generated near $100 billion in total economic output.

For the just-concluded staging it was reported that the spillover from capacity in the Corporate Area spread to other parts of the country, such as Ocho Rios, as visitors scrambled to secure accommodations following mass bookings which began from as early as the ISSA/Grace Kennedy Boys’ and Girls’ Athletics Championships in late March and the Glam Slam Track sporting event which took place in early April.

Despite these positive outflows the quarter’s overall performance is expected to be partially tempered by a 12.3 per cent contraction in alumina production, even as crude bauxite output rose by 3.9 per cent in April.

The PIOJ, in maintaining a generally positive outlook for the current 2025/26 fiscal year, also said its projection is for growth to take place within the range of 1.0 per cent to 2.0 per cent.

“All industries are forecast to record growth as the recovery from the weather-related shocks in 2024 will become more pronounced in the latter half of calendar year 2025,” Henry said, while noting that the PIOJ remains cognisant and watchful of prevailing uncertainties in the global economic space which could reverse gains.

For the January to March quarter the local economy narrowly fought off two previous quarters of contraction to register 0.8 per cent in output. The growth, though anaemic, marks the first seen since the onslaught of the devastating hydrological events which took place in 2024.

The goods-producing industry, recording growth of one per cent, was mainly driven by positive output across all its sub-industries. This, as construction went up by 1.5 per cent, manufacturing by 1.4 per cent, mining and quarrying by 0.5 per cent, and agriculture by a meagre 0.1 per cent. Within the usually dominant services industry seven of eight sub-industries also witnessed growth, led by transport, storage and communication at 1.8 per cent, along with finance and insurance as well as other services, which both increased by 1.0 per cent.

“The performance for the January to March 2025 quarter largely reflected the impact of the continued growth momentum in some industries following the adverse effects of the hydrological events of 2024 as well as increased external demand driven by growth in the economies of Jamaica’s main trading partners. Increased employment and higher levels of consumer confidence also drove domestic demand,” Henry said.

In the tourism sector, a surge in stopover arrivals — fuelled by events such as Spring Break, the Easter holidays and Jamaica Carnival — is further expected to contribute significantly to the PIOJ’s forecasted 0.5-1.5 per cent growth for the April-June quarter. (Photo: Karl Mclarty)