KINGSTON, Jamaica—The Meteorological Service of Jamaica (Met Service) forecasts three to five major hurricanes for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Director Evan Thompson explained that the projection indicates Category Three, Four or Five hurricanes, with sustained wind speeds exceeding 177 kilometres (110 miles) per hour.

He was addressing the National Disaster Risk Management Council Meeting at the Ministry of Local Government and Community Development in Kingston on Wednesday.

Regarding tropical storms, Thompson advised that between 13 and 19 could develop.

He noted that in a normal year, 14 tropical storms usually develop, producing wind speeds of about 64 to 118 kilometres per hour.

Thompson pointed out that six to 10 hurricanes are expected to develop from these tropical storms.

“Approximately seven occur in a normal year. But six to 10 means that we could have 10 of them, which is more than the norm. The last time a hurricane made landfall over Jamaica was in 2012 – Category One Sandy. The last time that a hurricane hit Jamaica, though, was during last year’s event – Beryl. It [was] a direct hit because the eye passed so close to the coast that we experienced some of the major activity from the eye wall of the system,” he detailed.

Thompson explained that key climatic patterns influencing the 2025 hurricane season, which began on June 1, include warm sea surface temperatures, a mostly neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and an active West African monsoon.

“Right now, the temperatures in the Caribbean region, as well as over the North Atlantic Ocean, are warmer than normal. They may not be actually as warm as they were last year, but they are significantly warm,” he noted.

The director shared that the hurricane names for 2025 are the same as 2019, except for Dexter that replaces Dorian which devastated The Bahamas.

Meanwhile, Thompson assured that Jamaicans can expect active, timely, contextual, and continuous reporting from the Met Service.

“We are committed to monitoring, and we have officers at our National Meteorological Centre in Kingston, at the Norman Manley International Airport. They are constantly monitoring 24/7, every day of the week. Expect contextualised warning messages. We don’t just take something and cut and paste. We have to see how it will impact you in Jamaica, and that’s what we communicate. So, it might take a few minutes to retrofit the bulletins,” he pointed out.

-JIS