JAMAICA’S birth, death and migration rates all saw declines in 2024, combining for a net decrease of more than 3,000 people in the country’s population.

The information is contained in the Planning Institute of Jamaica’s (PIOJ) 2024 Economic and Social Survey Jamaica.

The survey found that compared with 2023, births and deaths experienced a decrease of 11.9 per cent and 5.9 per cent, respectively.

Migration also accounted for a loss of 8,800 individuals, however, that figure was significantly below the 14,900 who left for overseas in 2023.

The PIOJ estimated the end-of-year population at 2,700,400 compared with 2,703,900 in 2023, indicating a net population decrease of 3,500 and a growth rate of -0.1 per cent.

According to the PIOJ, population size, growth, distribution and structure, are affected by births, deaths, and migration.

“In 2024, a total of 25,900 births and 20,600 deaths were recorded by the Registrar General’s Department, resulting in a natural increase of 5,300 persons,” the survey stated.

It pointed out that the age and sex structure of the population is influenced by fertility, mortality, and migration.

The age structure refers to the distribution of individuals across different age groups within a population, typically by five-year age groups or three broad age groups: children 0-14 years; working age 15-64 years; and the elderly 65 years and over.

This distribution shapes the needs and services required by the population, such as health care, education, social security, and labour.

Based on the trends, Jamaica’s population is now described as “old” by the PIOJ, which said this designation comes with challenges and opportunities.

The demographic trends that point to an ageing population have been increasing in Jamaica over the past 50 years and these continued into 2024, according to the PIOJ survey.

The PIOJ is now sounding the alarm, highlighting that “population ageing is one of the major consequences of the demographic transition and Jamaica’s population has been experiencing ageing since the downward trend in the total fertility rate (TFR) in the 1970s.

“The child population is declining and the working age population and elderly population are expanding. This is reflected in the median age. Jamaica’s median age at the end of 2024 was 31.1 years compared with 28.9 years in 2015. Populations with a median age of 30 and over may be described as old,” said the PIOJ.

In the meantime, the sex ratio of Jamaica’s population — which shows the number of males for every 100 females — points to some worrying trends.

“This ratio is important as it influences the social and economic structure of the society, such as the availability of partners and family formation, structure of the labour force, and gender-specific health concerns,” the PIOJ explained.

It noted that the total population constituted 1,363,700 females (50.5 per cent) and 1,336,700 males (49.5 per cent). The sex ratio in 2024 was 98.0 males per 100 females, similar to 2023. However, a closure look at the numbers highlights potential major challenges down the road.

The child population was estimated at 599,400 (307,800 males), representing 22.2 per cent of the total population, compared with 600,200 in 2023.

The sex ratio of children was 106 males to 100 females.

Also, the total working age population at 1,844,100 (936,900 females), represented 68.3 per cent of the total population compared with 1,846,700 in 2023.

The sex ratio of the working age group was 97 males for every 100 females, indicating that there were more females of working age.

And the elderly population, estimated at 256,500 (135,000 females), represented 9.5 per cent of the population, similar to 256,900 in 2023.

The sex ratio of the elderly was 90 males per 100 females, indicative of a higher proportion of females in the elderly population.

The survey also looked at the age dependency ratio (ADR) which measures the proportion of the dependent population (children and elderly) relative to the working age population.

“The shift from high to low rates of births and deaths normally results in a period when the size of the working age population (15-64 years) is larger than its dependent population (children 0-14 years; and adults 65+).

“In 2024, the ADR for Jamaica was 46.4 dependents per 100 persons of working age, which is similar to that of 2023.”

Over the period 2015–2024, there were fluctuations in the ADR, moving from 46.0 in 2015 to 46.4 in 2024, while the highest ADR over the period was 50.4 in 2018.

“The 2024 ADR translates into approximately one dependent to 2.2 persons of working age. The child dependency ratio, which is the proportion of children relative to the working age population, was 32.5, indicating that for every 100 working age individuals there were approximately 32.5 children who were dependent,” said the survey.

The elderly dependency ratio showed that for every 100 working age individuals, there were approximately 13.9 elderly dependents.

The PIOJ emphasised that ADRs below 100 generally signify that there are adequate people in the working age population to support the dependent population.

“Hence, this provides a window of opportunity, otherwise referred to as the demographic dividend, which allows for the harnessing of the relatively large pool of human resources to improve the country’s social, economic and environmental well-being,” said the PIOJ.