The countdown has begun!

This Sunday, August 10, Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) leader and Prime Minister Dr Andrew Michael Holness is expected to announce the date of the 2025 General Election at a mass meeting in Half-Way-Tree. In a seemingly unprecedented turn of events, the Opposition People’s National Party (PNP), led by President Mark Jefferson Golding, is expected to hold a mass meeting in Cross Roads, which is in proximity of the JLP’s meeting.

Needless to say, there has been some amount of apprehension, as there are fears that the staging of these two mass meetings so close to each other may well create an explosive situation. In this vein, perhaps the PNP should let good sense prevail and reschedule its meeting for another date, but it is alleged that the Comrades had already booked their meeting for that date prior to the JLP’s decision to fly the gate in Half-Way-Tree. Let us keep our fingers crossed and hope that there will be no ‘bangarang’.

In the final analysis, however, even if there may be the possibility of some upstaging, the JLP’s affair will no doubt be the main event in the eyes of the public. For many months the PNP has been daring the JLP to call the election: “Call it, Anju, call it!” Its strident General Secretary Dr Dayton Campbell has frequently suggested that the prime minister has been running scared because of the soundings on the ground which would suggest that the time had indeed come for the PNP to form the next Government of Jamaica.

Indeed, many political pundits, in reading the tea leaves, have been positing that the JLP needed more time to get its message across to the Jamaican people in its bid to attain a third term. The nation’s airwaves have been bombarded with advertisements, most seeming to be engineered and sponsored by various State entities, which begs the question as to whether this has been an ethically sound approach, using State funds and resources, inclusive of the highly touted school buses.

It was also obvious to the more discerning political analysts that the JLP had lost the momentum it had after its November conference last year as many of the “goodies” that Dr Holness had announced then did not appear to have resonated well with the wider public on a sustained basis. Then came the local government election, which saw the PNP doing exceptionally well to the extent that it got most of the popular votes islandwide. This victorious scenario undoubtedly gave the PNP a well-needed fillip, dispelling the view held by many sceptics and detractors that a Golding-led PNP was not a viable proposition.

In fact, if the local government election results were that for a general election, the PNP would have won or at least gained a sizeable number of seats — unlike that which occurred in the 2020 General Election. This winning scenario has emboldened the Comrades who have since ramped up their machinery and have been in election mode, energising their base and keeping the fires burning in the fields.

Others may have felt that “Brogad” deliberately decided not to call an early election so soon after the local one in a bid to get the PNP bandwagon to falter and become battle-weary. But this has not happened, even when there have been signs that the JLP camp, apart from the many ribbon-cutting exercises and ground-breaking ceremonies, has not really ramped up its troops, coasting along with seeming confidence, no doubt relying on its highly touted record of achievements which it hopes will convince sufficient numbers of Jamaicans to guarantee the party its highly sought-after third term. But will this happen?

While declaring that he is the “long distance stulla”, Dr Holness must be wary of the fact that the polls have remained quite flat for the JLP, while the PNP seems to be on a roll, daring him to “call it”. It is no secret that when the PNP base is fully energised and motivated (which it is now) the JLP cannot take anything for granted. The JLP should be reminded that many thousands of PNP supporters did not participate in the 2020 General Election. This time round, it will not be so. On the other hand, there has been some amount of feedback coming from the JLP camp which suggests that some of its supporters have been demotivated because of the poor level of representation being meted out by their JLP Members of Parliament (MP) who have been taking them for granted and only now have been seeking to woo them back to the fold.

It is also no secret that many sitting MPs had won their seats on the coat-tails of the once-ever-so-popular Brogad, who has now lost some of his sheen. In addition, contrary to the long-held perception about ‘prosperity’, many of the JLP’s supporters, like Comrades and uncommitted voters, have not been benefiting in a real way from the Government’s policies with respect to bread-and-butter/kitchen table issues. Indeed, the top-down economic model has not been bearing fruit.

Then there are the governance issues, chief among which is the burning matter of accusations of corruption in which the prime minister is embroiled because of the impasse between himself and the Integrity Commission with respect to his statutory declarations, or lack thereof.

It is against this backdrop that Dr Holness, if he “flies di gate” this coming Sunday, will have to go hard to convince the majority of the Jamaican electorate that he deserves a third term. In other words: Should the Jamaican people fire or rehire him?

Time will tell or ‘Time Come”!

Lloyd B Smith has been involved full-time in Jamaican media for the past 49 years. He has also served as a Member of Parliament and Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives. He hails from western Jamaica where he is popularly known as the Governor. Send comments to the Jamaica Observer or lbsmith4@gmail.com.

Should the Jamaica Labour Party be re-elected to a third term based on its record of achievements?Naphtali Junior

Lloyd B Smithonline