Speaking at a media briefing on Tuesday, PIOJ Director General Dr Wayne Henry said that, historically, periods of intense election campaigning tend to boost commerce due to increased spending. With Jamaicans expected to head to the polls on September 3, political activity has intensified, as supporters of the two main political parties rally to elect their preferred candidate for prime minister.

“Traditionally, we have seen where intense election campaigning leads to increased economic activity and consumption spending during that period,” Henry said, in response to a query from the Jamaica Observer.

“Over the years, Jamaica has demonstrated relatively peaceful elections, which gives us reason to expect positive economic outcomes from this cycle. Of course, if violence or unrest were to occur, negative impacts could arise, but we have not seen that over many years and that is a testament to the strength of the Electoral Office of Jamaica (EOJ) and other framework, our democratic maturity, as well as the citizens’ interest in having peaceful, fair and transparent elections,” he added.

The director general maintaining a generally positive outlook for the economy said the expectation is also for there to be growth within the range of 1.0 per cent to 2.0 per cent for fiscal year 2025/26 as output from the upcoming quarters are added. For the first half of 2025, preliminary estimates show a 1.2 per cent expansion in economic output largely driven by a 2.9 per cent growth in the goods producing industry and 0.7 per cent from Services.

“The industries which were estimated to have recorded the largest increases during the first half of the year, were Agriculture, Forestry &Fishing, up 6.4 per cent; Information & Communication, up 3.6 per cent; Accommodation & Food Service Activities, up 1.8 per cent; and Manufacturing, up 1.6 per cent,” Henry noted.

Supported by the full adoption of a revised GDP methodology now utilised by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (Statin) as well as the continued growth across most industries and a general rebound from the shocks caused by Hurricane Beryl, the PIOJ in its report on the previous April-June quarter estimated a growth of 1.4 per cent when compared to the corresponding quarter of 2024.

“Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing and the Accommodation & Food Service Activities industries — two industries that were hardest hit by the weather-related disruptions of 2024 — were key drivers of this positive performance,” Henry explained as he noted that both industries have now entered a new growth phase, with current output surpassing pre-Hurricane Beryl levels.

The quarterly expansion was supported by increased domestic demand for goods and services, improved business and consumer confidence, and a rise in the employed labour force. This translated into 3.8 per cent growth in the Goods Producing Industry and 0.5 per cent growth in Services.

Growth in the Goods Producing Industry was largely led by a 9.8 per cent or near 10 per cent increase in agriculture, along with 1.6 per cent and 1.4 per cent increases in construction and manufacturing, respectively. This marks a recovery from the low production base seen in the second quarter of 2024, when most industries were adversely impacted by hydrological events. Within the division, the usually dominant mining and quarry industry however saw a 3.5 per cent contraction as reduced demand and some technical challenges associated with equipment failure resulted in lower alumina and crude bauxite production.

On the other hand, growth in Services which reflected higher real value added for most industries saw major sub-divisions such as Accommodation and Food Service activities, comprising the heavily weighted tourism sector, leading output at 2.5 per cent followed by Education Health and other Services at 1.4 per cent and Transport & Storage at 1.3 per cent. Declines in Electricity, Water and Waste Management and Real Estate & Business Activities, however, contrasted overall performance.

“The preliminary data presented on performance for the April to June 2025 quarter, indicate a continued strengthening of performance following the weather related shocks in the latter half of 2024. Most industries have already fully recovered and have recorded output levels, indicating that a new growth phase has been attained,” Henry stated.

“The short-term outlook for the July-September quarter reflects the expectation of the combined impact of the low-base effect as well as the current growth momentum, which will result in the realisation of stronger rates of growth,” he further said, while pointing to continued uncertainty concerning global trade developments on which the PIOJ continues to monitor and keep close watch.

PIOJ Director General Dr Wayne Henry said that, historically, periods of intense election campaigning tend to boost commerce due to increased spending. With Jamaicans expected to head to the polls on September 3, political activity has intensified, as supporters of the two main parties rally to elect their preferred candidate for prime minister

HENRY…traditionally, we have seen where intense election campaigning leads to increased economic activity and consumption spending during that period