Noted pollster Don Anderson has stoutly defended his poll results dating back to the 2002 general election, declaring that he is proud of the work of his team at Market Research Services Limited (MRSL).

Anderson mounted his defence in a presentation via Zoom at Tuesday’s weekly meeting of the Kiwanis Club of Kingston. It followed withering criticism of his polling in the lead-up to the September 3 general election which the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) won with 35 seats, compared to the 28 seats secured by the People’s National Party (PNP).

Some JLP politicians repeatedly urged their supporters to disregard the Anderson polls which showed the PNP holding a lead for well over a year leading up to the date of the election. That lead was as wide as nine percentage points in September 2024 although it was steadily whittled away with the PNP holding a lead of just 0.8 percentage points two weeks before the election. In his final poll before the election, Anderson found that the PNP had bounced back and had opened up a 3.1 percentage point lead that was just outside the margin of error of plus or minus 3 per cent. He said he did not name a winner because the race was just too close to call.

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Anderson recalled that in 2002, he called the election for the PJ Patterson-led PNP, and for the JLP on the eve of the 2007 election when, having gone back into the field late, he realised a number of seats had flipped in favour of the Bruce Golding-led JLP in the last 48 hours of polling.

“2011 was a no brainer, it was the post-Dudus situation, the People’s National Party were slated to win and they did so comfortably, 42-21 (seats), that’s how we predicted it,” said Anderson.

He told his audience that in 2016 he did not make a call as he was getting more cautious about calling.

“But it was a deadheat, a 2.8 per cent gap with the People’s National Party leading.

“I make the point publicly and otherwise that the JLP won that election by one seat but to a large extent it was an election of a government that was wrapped up by the People’s National Party – they had ribbons and bows put on top of it and handed it over to the Jamaica Labour Party. I’ve said that in any crowd [without fear of contradiction”.

Anderson highlighted that in 2020 he had the JLP leading by 16 points two days before the election with the result being 49 seats for the JLP, 14 for the PNP in a lopsided contest in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic when thousands of PNP supporters stayed away.

“We didn’t make a call in 2025 but again, I’ve given you the data to indicate that on the basis of what we said was the likely outcome, 3.1 per cent (lead) for the People’s National Party, the election was won by the party leading the other (post-election) by one percentage point, 1.2, by 10,000 votes and, by now, seven seats. I don’t believe you can get any more accurate than that,” said Anderson.

“That’s our record, we stand by it, we’re proud to have been so consistent but it’s hard work. The bottomline line is that we really take a lot of pride in this and I really want to give my staff credit for just backing me up in all of this and to pay tribute to them for their hard work that they do.

“The hardest thing is for persons to go out to ask people how they’re going to vote and gain the confidence of the population at large because we have an impeccable record,” he added.

-Lynford Simpson