KINGSTON, Jamaica — The Meteorological Service says a hurricane warning remains in effect for Jamaica, as Category 4 Hurricane Melissa continues moving over the Caribbean Sea south of the island.

At 7:00 pm, the centre of Hurricane Melissa was located 185 kilometres south-southwest of Kingston, or 156 kilometres south of Rocky Point, Clarendon.

The met service says life-threatening storm surge, accompanied by large and destructive waves, is likely along the south coast of Jamaica late Monday through Tuesday morning and could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the east of where the centre of Melissa makes landfall.

Melissa is moving toward the west near 7 km/h, and a slow westward motion is expected tonight, followed by a turn to the north and northeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move closer to Jamaica and over the island on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 230 km/h (145 mph), with higher gusts. Additional intensification is forecast over the next day or so, followed by fluctuations in intensity. Melissa is expected to be a powerful major hurricane when making landfall in Jamaica Monday night or Tuesday morning.

Hurricane Melissa is expected to produce rainfall amounts reaching 350-700 mm (15-30 inches) over parts of Jamaica in the next few days, especially over eastern parishes, with higher amounts over hilly terrain. Catastrophic flash floods and landslides are likely.

As the hurricane moves closer, tropical storm force winds are expected to spread from southeastern sections of Jamaica to the northwest tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected by Monday.

Small craft operators, including fishers on the cays and banks, are strongly advised to remain in safe harbour until all warning messages have been lifted and wind and sea conditions have returned to normal.