BRIDGETOWN, Barbados (CMC) — The Barbados-based Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) on Wednesday said there will be a decrease of tropical cyclone activity and of excessively hot and humid days in November as the Caribbean transitions into the dry and cool seasons in December.

It said that a shift to La Niña conditions, characterised by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, caused by stronger trade winds, combined with continued unusual warmth in the Subtropical North Atlantic, increases uncertainty in the seasonal forecast.

“Nevertheless, the outlook suggests steady decrease of tropical cyclone activity and of excessively hot and humid days in November, high rainfall intensity and shower frequency in the ABC Islands, Belize, the Lesser Antilles through November or December, resulting in high to extremely high potential for flooding, flash floods, cascading hazards and associated impacts.”

CariCOF, which released its latest edition of Caribbean Climate Outlooks looking at the three month period November to January next year, said that the outlook for the region also suggests increasing dry spell frequency in The Bahamas and Greater Antilles as well as the appearance of drought impacts by the end of January in locations with ongoing drought.

It said that as at the end of October, severe or short term drought has developed throughout the Windward Islands, as well as in Aruba, parts of the Dominican Republic, Guadeloupe, while long term drought will occur in southwest Dominica, northern Jamaica, parts of northern Guyana, St Croix and St Vincent.