KINGSTON, Jamaica — Reeling from the devastation brought on by the passage of Hurricane Melissa last month, the local economy is expected to register as much as a 13 per cent decline in gross domestic product (GDP) output during the last quarter of this year, according to preliminary estimates released by the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ).

Director General of the PIOJ Dr Wayne Henry, in sharing a grim short-term outlook, said at a quarterly press briefing Tuesday morning that the expectation is for there to be wholesale contractions across most of the island’s key industries such as agriculture and tourism. This, as the seven most affected parishes accounts for the bulk of domestic crop acreage and hotel room stocks.

“The extent of the damage from Hurricane Melissa is unprecedented and far reaching, affecting all industries and is therefore expected to result in increased unemployment, weakened demand and output.

“The economic contraction for October to December 2025, is primarily expected to be transmitted through the industries Agriculture, Accommodation and Food Services, Electricity, Construction, Information Communication Technologies (ICT) and Transport and Storage,” he said.

The preliminary economic projection for FY 2025/26 is also for there to be a contraction within the range of 3.0 per cent to 6.0 per cent. Hurricane Melissa which rattled the island on October 28 brought severe damage, loss of lives and over a trillion dollars’ worth of damage.

For the previous July to September quarter, the country saw GDP growth of 4.6 per cent after recovering from a low production base owing to the adverse impacts of other weather-related events such as Hurricane Beryl a year earlier. Based on the latest fallouts, the economy is not expected to return to some level of normalcy until October 2026.

“The Oct-Dec quarter is expected to be the worst seen since the April-June quarter of 2020 when the island was impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. The frequency of weather-related and other shocks have continued to hinder the country’s ability to realise sustained economic growth,” Henry also said while indicating that it is highly likely that a recession could be in the making.

“Based on the projections outlined, the country should brace for a recession. However, our focus at the moment is on restoring livelihoods, protecting the vulnerable and trying to get things up and running from a humanitarian standpoint (providing food, shelter and clothing) as fast as we can,” he stated.

— Kellaray Miles