Jamaica’s economic rebound was faster than estimated before hurricane reversal
JAMAICA’S economy grew more strongly than first estimated in the third quarter as it recovered from 2024’s Hurricane Beryl, final data shows, but planning authorities warn that Hurricane Melissa, which struck in October 2025, has now reversed those gains, threatening jobs, prices and household finances for years.
The Statistical Institute of Jamaica (Statin) reported on Wednesday that the economy expanded by 5.1 per cent between July and September compared to the same period in 2024. This final figure exceeded the preliminary estimate of 4.6 per cent published in November by the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ).
Statin reported on Wednesday that the economy expanded by 5.1 per cent between July and September compared to the same period in 2024. This final figure exceeded the preliminary estimate of 4.6 per cent published in November by the PIOJ. The growth represents the third-consecutive quarter of economic expansion following contractions in the third and fourth quarters of 2024.
That recovery was abruptly cut short. In its quarterly briefing in November, the PIOJ stated that Hurricane Melissa — a Category 5 storm which struck on October 28, 2025 — is projected to cause the economy to contract between 11 and 13 per cent in the final quarter of the year. The institute forecasts a full fiscal-year contraction of 3 to 6 per cent for 2025/26.
The direct implications for consumers are set out in the PIOJ’s review. The agency warned the hurricane would cause “increased unemployment” and “weakened demand and output,” directly affecting livelihoods in the very sectors that had just recovered. Damage to agricultural land and critical infrastructure is also expected to pressure the supply and cost of essential goods.
The long-term outlook suggests prolonged financial strain for households. The PIOJ stated that a return to pre-hurricane economic output levels “is conservatively projected to be within 3 to 5 years,” and that economic growth is “not anticipated until the October–December 2026 quarter.”
A preliminary damage assessment coordinated by the World Bank, cited by the PIOJ, estimates the cost of Hurricane Melissa at US$8.8 billion, approximately 41 per cent of Jamaica’s 2024 gross domestic product (GDP).
