BRIDGETOWN, Barbados (CMC) — The Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) says continued, unusual warmth in the Tropical North Atlantic Ocean implies the occurrence of severe weather activity as soon as April in southern Belize, the Guianas, the Greater Antilles and mountainous areas of the Lesser Antilles.

In its latest edition of the Caribbean Climate Outlook Newsletter, CariCOF, said that the second half of the Caribbean dry season includes its annual peak in March, but also the transition out of the cool and into the heat season.

It said also that the continued, unusual warmth will also imply high potential for flooding, flash floods, cascading hazards and associated impacts from April or May onwards, short dry spells peak in frequency, particularly in the ABC Islands (Aruba, Bonnaire and Curacoa) and Lesser Antilles as well as episodes of heat discomfort may appear as soon as March in inland portions of Belize, the Guianas and Trinidad, or April elsewhere, and become more widespread by May.

CariCOF said rainfall totals are unlikely to mitigate long-term drought impacts in the ABC Islands, St Kitts and Nevis and the Windward Islands, with imminent long-term drought forecasted for the end of May in Grenada.

CariCOF said that as at January 1, moderate short-term drought has developed in easternmost Guadeloupe, St Croix, St Kitts, St Lucia, Sint Maarten/St-Martin, St Vincent, and far southeast Suriname and Aruba.

It said long-term drought at the end of May this year is imminent in Grenada, evolving in the ABC islands, Dominica, Martinique and St Vincent, and might possibly develop or continue in northern parts of the Dominican Republic and the islands of Saint Martin and St Barts.