Below average rainfall in 2025, despite Hurricane Melissa’s torrential showers
Above normal rain predicted for February to April 2026 period
Jamaica recorded 5.67 per cent below average annual rainfall in 2025 despite the excessive amount of rainfall experienced in October due to Category 5 Hurricane Melissa.
According to data from the Meteorological Service of Jamaica, rainfall for the entire 2025 was below the average for the last 30 years by more than 100 millimetres (mm).
The average rainfall across Jamaica last year was 1,763 mm, or 106 mm less than the average 1,869 mm measured between 1991 and 2020.
Every month of the year in 2025 recorded below average rainfall except for October, which accounted for almost a third of the country’s total showers last year, following Hurricane Melissa, which struck towards the end of the month on October 28.
October recorded an average 518 mm of rainfall in comparison to the 248 mm 30-year average, with Portland, St Elizabeth and Manchester receiving the most rainfall that month.
The almost doubling of average rainfall in October due to Hurricane Melissa and associated flooding caused an estimated $35 billion in damage to the nation’s road network and $29.5 billion in losses across the agriculture sector.
January recorded the least rainfall last year, followed by February and December. Two parishes, namely St Thomas and Portland, experienced meteorological drought in December.
Portland, Hanover and Westmoreland were the wetter parishes, a trend that aligns with the 30-year mean.
Meanwhile, the Meteorological Service of Jamaica is predicting above normal rainfall at 40 to 70 percentage points across most of the island for the February to April period of 2026. It said higher probabilities of 50 to 70 percentage points are expected in some southern parishes, while seasonal rainfall patterns are anticipated in northern St Mary.
The service added that the short-term drought outlook to the end of April 2026 indicates no concern for drought conditions for most areas in Jamaica, the exception being in sections of Hanover and St James and southern sections of Clarendon, where significantly dry conditions could develop.
