Barring a quick end to the conflict between USA/Israel and Iran, Jamaican consumers, just like people elsewhere, were always going to be in the cross hairs of steep price increases.

For, as older Jamaicans know from lived experience dating back to the 1970s, war, rumours of war and geopolitical tensions in oil-produciing regions — more so the Middle East — inevitably drive up the price of oil and gas.

And, with equal inevitability, soaring prices for energy products feed into increased costs for virtually everything else.

Governments instinctively delay having to do what Energy Minister Daryl Vaz announced Wednesday: That’s an altering of a pricing mechanism for petroleum products which had significantly shielded consumers.

The costly consequences of the hostilities meant assertive action could be delayed no longer.

For, as Mr Vaz explained to journalists on Wednesday, maintaining the previous arrangement “up to June 2026… would cost the Government of Jamaica $11.8 billion, which is unaffordable and unsustainable, and in fact is two-thirds of this budget year’s revenue measure”.

Against the backdrop of Hurricane Melissa and its horrific consequences, Mr Vaz went further: “Let me be blatantly, truthfully, up front, in your face [and say] the Government of Jamaica cannot stomach $11.8 billion [in additional costs] with all of what we have to do and the contending priorities…”

The minister tells us we are “definitely” going to have increases as long as the current conflict and tensions continue.

He warns that Jamaicans will have to “understand the magnitude of the impact of this war” on the country and the need to protect themselves through energy conservation.

Indeed, Mr Vaz goes so far as to say that, “Government is going to have to look at policies to limit movements, especially transportation movements. I don’t know whether or not we go back to COVID-19 hybrid version of working from home, but something has to happen…”

This gives rise to the question: Given that the US/Israel war against Iran started in late February, what would have caused the Government to delay speaking out as strongly as it now has?

We understand the reluctance to pull the rug on prices given the inevitable harsh impact. But why not at least warn the Jamaican people in clear, unequivocal language from early of the potential dangers up ahead.

We are left to assume the Government bought into the narrative that the conflict would end quickly.

In fact, Mr Vaz gave more than a hint with his comment that he was hopeful up to “a few days ago that there was going to be some kind of resolution…”

The Government’s midjudgement becomes more glaring since the political Opposition had spoken out about the potential consequences of the war in last month’s budget debate and even before that

And, on Tuesday, Opposition Leader Mark Golding repeated criticisms of the Government’s approach at a press conference in Kingston.

The hope has to be that good sense will prevail; that hostilities in the Middle East will cool; and that there will be no repeat of the reckless adventurism that triggered the war in the first place.

But, regardless of what happens internationally, and no matter what our Government does, or not, Jamaicans should heed the advice of the energy minister and do whatever is necessary to conserve.

Ultimately, all any of us can do to help ourselves is the best we can.