CONSUMER confidence rebounded in the first quarter of 2026, but the recovery remains uneven, with business sentiment weakening and inflation concerns persisting, according to the latest Jamaica Chamber of Commerce (JCC)/GK Capital Business & Consumer Confidence Indices.

The uptick follows a noticeable dip in the final quarter of 2025, when sentiment was weighed down by the impact of Hurricane Melissa. Meanwhile, the business confidence index declined to 124 in the March quarter, down from 136 a year earlier. Polling expert and executive chairman/CEO of Market Research Services Limited Don Anderson cautioned against over-interpreting the rebound in consumer confidence, noting that consumer sentiment tends to move more quickly and often more erratically than business confidence.

“It is coming out of a slump, and therefore we can see a four-percentage-point increase in the index, but it is not back to what it was in quarter one of 2025,” Anderson noted.

He explained that the rebound reflects a recovery from what he described as a “total depression” in the fourth quarter of 2025 following the hurricane, with consumers now signalling that conditions are improving. This has translated into improved views on current business conditions, alongside stronger expectations for household income. However, expectations for the next 12 months remain mixed. The gap between those expecting improvement and those anticipating worsening conditions has narrowed in the first quarter of 2026. Inflation concerns persist, with 70 per cent of consumers expecting prices to increase significantly. Businesses, by contrast, remain more measured in their outlook. Anderson said firms tend to react more slowly, given their longer-term planning horizon.

“Lots of disruptions have taken place in the business environment, and as a result, they are slowly reacting to the situation, which is reflected in that 6.5 per cent decline in business confidence,” he said.

Despite the decline, most businesses remain optimistic about investment prospects, profitability, and their overall financial position, while also expressing cautious optimism about broader economic conditions. Price pressures remain a shared concern among businesses and consumers, with 87 per cent of businesses reporting price increases over the past year and 92 per cent expecting pricesto continue rising over the next 12 months. Sectorally, agriculture and manufacturing continue to lead in capital investment intentions, though high input costs remain a key constraint on expansion.

Tourism continues to be viewed as a key driver of economic growth, with 45 per cent of businesses indicating it has or will have a strong impact, and another 38 per cent pointing to a significant impact, even as broader uncertainty persists. At the same time, most firms signalled that sectors such as tourism, agriculture and financial services are moderately prepared to adapt to emerging challenges. Climate resilience has also come into sharper focus, particularly as more frequent and intense weather-related events are expected.

Some 84 per cent of respondents agreed that Jamaica should prioritise tourism for climate-resilient investment.

“We need to build a tourism ecosystem that is resilient, and that recognises all the downside risk and puts in place a framework for managing them as best as possible, and I think there are a lot of opportunities in that regard,” said Patrick Hylton, president of the Private Sector Organisation of Jamaica, during discussions.

HYLTON… we need to build a tourism ecosystem that is resilient, and that recognises all the downside risk and puts in place a framework for managing them as best as possible.